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moonstone is independent research and market data, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prices are real recorded transactions and live market data, USD only. Collectibles are speculative, illiquid, and volatile and can lose value; past performance is not indicative of future results. See the full disclaimer. Pokémon and its trademarks are the property of their respective owners; moonstone is not affiliated with or endorsed by Nintendo, Creatures, Game Freak, or The Pokémon Company.

set deskSeptember 2026

Surging Sparks

252 cards trackedenglish printsungradedtcgplayer marketas of 2026-09-24
Full set$1,236
Median card$0.16
30 days−1.7%
90 days−12.7%
Top 10 share71%
Priced262

Set Market Report PRO

Where it sits in its own history339 recorded readings
All-time high$1,8552025-02-17
From that high−33.4%set value today
First recorded$1,782when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than63%212 of 339 recorded days were cheaper

Ask about Surging Sparks

Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.

Full workspace

Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.

Cost concentration10 cards = 71% of the bill
10 cards · $880other 252 · $355

The short, expensive tail of the set.

Chase laddertop 10 by price
$286
Pikachu ex - 238/19101
Pikachu ex - 238/191
−1.4% 30d
$186
Latias ex - 239/19102
Latias ex - 239/191
+2.7% 30d
$124
Milotic ex - 237/19103
Milotic ex - 237/191
+0.1% 30d
$82.4
Pikachu ex - 247/19104
Pikachu ex - 247/191
−8.5% 30d
$40.23
Durant ex - 236/19105
Durant ex - 236/191
+2.3% 30d
$37.52
Hydreigon ex - 240/19106
Hydreigon ex - 240/191
−0.8% 30d
$35.45
Latios - 203/19107
Latios - 203/191
−1.5% 30d
$29.83
Pikachu ex - 219/19108
Pikachu ex - 219/191
+2.1% 30d
$29.07
Lisia's Appeal - 246/19109
Lisia's Appeal - 246/191
+9.2% 30d
$28.98
Alolan Exeggutor ex - 242/19110
Alolan Exeggutor ex - 242/191
−10.6% 30d
Every card252 cards · 252 priced
No.CardRarityMarket
001/191ExeggcuteCommon$0.16
002/191ExeggcuteCommon$0.11
003/191ExeggutorUncommon$0.09
004/191Durant exDouble rare$0.58
005/191ScatterbugCommon$0.12
006/191SpewpaCommon$0.08
007/191VivillonUncommon$0.16
008/191MorelullCommon$0.08
009/191ShiinoticUncommon$0.07
010/191DhelmiseCommon$0.08
011/191ZarudeRare$0.12
012/191CapsakidCommon$0.05
013/191RellorCommon$0.08
014/191RabscaRare$0.16
015/191Wo-ChienUncommon$0.06
016/191VulpixCommon$0.21
017/191NinetalesUncommon$0.18
018/191Paldean TaurosUncommon$0.20
019/191Ho-OhUncommon$0.15
020/191Castform Sunny FormCommon$0.07
021/191VictiniUncommon$0.16
022/191PansearCommon$0.05
023/191SimisearCommon$0.08
024/191LarvestaCommon$0.03
025/191VolcaronaCommon$0.06
026/191OricorioCommon$0.12
027/191SizzlipedeCommon$0.11
028/191CentiskorchCommon$0.07
029/191FuecocoCommon$0.14
030/191CrocalorCommon$0.16
031/191SkeledirgeRare$0.21
032/191CharcadetCommon$0.16
033/191CharcadetCommon$0.18
034/191ArmarougeUncommon$0.14
035/191CeruledgeUncommon$0.15
036/191Ceruledge exDouble rare$1.14
037/191Scovillain exDouble rare$0.60
038/191Gouging FireRare$0.21
039/191Paldean TaurosUncommon$0.15
040/191MantineCommon$0.06
041/191FeebasCommon$0.15
042/191Milotic exDouble rare$0.71
043/191SphealCommon$0.12
044/191SealeoCommon$0.08
045/191WalreinUncommon$0.15
046/191ShellosCommon$0.10
047/191CryogonalCommon$0.02
048/191Black Kyurem exDouble rare$0.65
049/191BruxishUncommon$0.04
050/191QuaxlyCommon$0.07
051/191QuaxwellCommon$0.09
052/191QuaquavalUncommon$0.14
053/191CetoddleCommon$0.11
054/191CetitanCommon$0.02
055/191Iron BundleUncommon$0.11
056/191Chien-PaoRare$0.20
057/191Pikachu exDouble rare$4.76
058/191MagnemiteCommon$0.12
059/191MagnetonUncommon$0.10
060/191MagnezoneUncommon$0.08
061/191RotomCommon$0.10
062/191BlitzleCommon$0.07
063/191ZebstrikaCommon$0.14
064/191StunfiskCommon$0.08
065/191Tapu KokoRare$0.16
066/191WattrelCommon$0.05
067/191KilowattrelUncommon$0.06
068/191Kilowattrel exDouble rare$0.70
069/191MiraidonUncommon$0.15
070/191TogepiCommon$0.14
071/191TogeticCommon$0.15
072/191TogekissRare$0.21
073/191MarillCommon$0.12
074/191AzumarillUncommon$0.08
075/191SmoochumCommon$0.28
076/191Latias exDouble rare$6.66
077/191LatiosUncommon$0.10
078/191UxieCommon$0.19
079/191MespritCommon$0.20
080/191AzelfCommon$0.14
081/191SigilyphCommon$0.02
082/191YamaskCommon$0.03
083/191CofagrigusRare$0.16
084/191EspurrCommon$0.14
085/191MeowsticUncommon$0.07
086/191Sylveon exDouble rare$2.52
087/191DedenneCommon$0.20
088/191XerneasUncommon$0.12
089/191OricorioCommon$0.07
090/191SandygastCommon$0.04
091/191Palossand exDouble rare$0.65
092/191Tapu LeleRare$0.18
093/191IndeedeeUncommon$0.13
094/191FlittleCommon$0.04
095/191EspathraUncommon$0.05
096/191Flutter ManeUncommon$0.06
097/191GimmighoulCommon$0.17
098/191MankeyCommon$0.03
099/191PrimeapeCommon$0.16
100/191AnnihilapeUncommon$0.13
101/191Paldean TaurosUncommon$0.14
102/191PhanpyCommon$0.19
103/191DonphanCommon$0.06
104/191TrapinchCommon$0.10
105/191VibravaCommon$0.20
106/191Flygon exDouble rare$0.64
107/191GastrodonRare$0.16
108/191DrilburCommon$0.05
109/191ExcadrillCommon$0.04
110/191LandorusRare$0.14
111/191PassimianUncommon$0.14
112/191ClobbopusCommon$0.13
113/191GrapploctCommon$0.07
114/191GlimmetCommon$0.04
115/191GlimmoraCommon$0.09
116/191KoraidonUncommon$0.09
117/191DeinoCommon$0.16
118/191ZweilousCommon$0.18
119/191Hydreigon exDouble rare$0.76
120/191ShroodleCommon$0.05
121/191GrafaiaiUncommon$0.08
122/191Alolan DiglettCommon$0.13
123/191Alolan DugtrioUncommon$0.06
124/191SkarmoryCommon$0.12
125/191RegisteelUncommon$0.14
126/191BronzorCommon$0.04
127/191BronzongCommon$0.05
128/191KlefkiCommon$0.15
129/191DuraludonCommon$0.07
130/191Archaludon exDouble rare$0.55
131/191GholdengoUncommon$0.12
132/191Iron CrownRare$0.15
133/191Alolan Exeggutor exDouble rare$0.71
134/191AltariaUncommon$0.05
135/191DialgaRare$0.10
136/191PalkiaRare$0.18
137/191TurtonatorUncommon$0.02
138/191ApplinCommon$0.24
139/191FlappleUncommon$0.10
140/191AppletunUncommon$0.07
141/191EternatusRare$0.18
142/191Tatsugiri exDouble rare$0.68
143/191EeveeCommon$0.24
144/191SnorlaxCommon$0.29
145/191SlakothCommon$0.07
146/191VigorothCommon$0.05
147/191Slaking exDouble rare$0.63
148/191SwabluCommon$0.07
149/191ZangooseCommon$0.05
150/191KecleonCommon$0.18
151/191BouffalantCommon$0.16
152/191RuffletCommon$0.06
153/191BraviaryUncommon$0.04
154/191HelioptileCommon$0.05
155/191HelioliskCommon$0.10
156/191OranguruCommon$0.07
157/191TandemausCommon$0.23
158/191MausholdUncommon$0.24
159/191Cyclizar exDouble rare$0.58
160/191Flamigo exDouble rare$0.57
161/191TerapagosRare$0.13
162/191Amulet of HopeACE SPEC Rare$0.54
163/191Babiri BerryUncommon$0.06
164/191Brilliant BlenderACE SPEC Rare$0.86
165/191Call BellUncommon$0.13
166/191Chill Teaser ToyUncommon$0.05
167/191Clemont's Quick WitUncommon$0.07
168/191Colbur BerryUncommon$0.06
169/191Counter GainUncommon$0.15
170/191CyranoUncommon$0.20
171/191Deduction KitUncommon$0.08
172/191Dragon ElixirUncommon$0.13
173/191DrasnaCommon$0.03
174/191DraytonUncommon$0.16
175/191Dusk BallUncommon$0.19
176/191Energy Search ProACE SPEC Rare$0.61
177/191Gravity MountainUncommon$0.20
178/191Jasmine's GazeUncommon$0.06
179/191Lisia's AppealUncommon$0.20
180/191Lively StadiumUncommon$0.18
181/191Meddling MemoUncommon$0.07
182/191Megaton BlowerACE SPEC Rare$0.40
183/191Miracle HeadsetACE SPEC Rare$0.62
184/191Passho BerryUncommon$0.05
185/191Precious TrolleyACE SPEC Rare$2.91
186/191Scramble SwitchACE SPEC Rare$0.38
187/191SurferUncommon$0.09
188/191Technical Machine: FluoriteUncommon$0.07
189/191Tera OrbUncommon$0.19
190/191TymeUncommon$0.15
191/191Enriching EnergyACE SPEC Rare$5.44
192/191ExeggcuteIllustration rare$7.49
193/191VivillonIllustration rare$4.74
194/191ShiinoticIllustration rare$3.79
195/191Castform Sunny FormIllustration rare$8.02
196/191LarvestaIllustration rare$2.87
197/191CeruledgeIllustration rare$25.01
198/191FeebasIllustration rare$8.51
199/191SphealIllustration rare$10.11
200/191BruxishIllustration rare$2.80
201/191CetitanIllustration rare$2.99
202/191StunfiskIllustration rare$2.23
203/191LatiosIllustration rare$35.34
204/191MespritIllustration rare$13.20
205/191PhanpyIllustration rare$9.06
206/191VibravaIllustration rare$3.50
207/191ClobbopusIllustration rare$5.91
208/191Alolan DugtrioIllustration rare$8.74
209/191SkarmoryIllustration rare$8.99
210/191FlappleIllustration rare$4.58
211/191AppletunIllustration rare$8.83
212/191SlakothIllustration rare$12.91
213/191KecleonIllustration rare$9.37
214/191BraviaryIllustration rare$4.98
215/191Durant exUltra Rare$0.97
216/191Scovillain exUltra Rare$0.91
217/191Milotic exUltra Rare$2.34
218/191Black Kyurem exUltra Rare$2.18
219/191Pikachu exUltra Rare$29.33
220/191Latias exUltra Rare$7.68
221/191Palossand exUltra Rare$1.60
222/191Flygon exUltra Rare$2.26
223/191Hydreigon exUltra Rare$5.02
224/191Archaludon exUltra Rare$1.11
225/191Alolan Exeggutor exUltra Rare$2.10
226/191Tatsugiri exUltra Rare$1.94
227/191Slaking exUltra Rare$1.02
228/191Cyclizar exUltra Rare$1.39
229/191Clemont's Quick WitUltra Rare$1.22
230/191CyranoUltra Rare$2.81
231/191DrasnaUltra Rare$1.04
232/191DraytonUltra Rare$1.11
233/191Jasmine's GazeUltra Rare$1.42
234/191Lisia's AppealUltra Rare$3.45
235/191SurferUltra Rare$1.17
236/191Durant exSpecial illustration rare$40.24
237/191Milotic exSpecial illustration rare$122.91
238/191Pikachu exSpecial illustration rare$286.77
239/191Latias exSpecial illustration rare$187.30
240/191Hydreigon exSpecial illustration rare$36.96
241/191Archaludon exSpecial illustration rare$12.62
242/191Alolan Exeggutor exSpecial illustration rare$27.74
243/191Clemont's Quick WitSpecial illustration rare$8.36
244/191DraytonSpecial illustration rare$8.12
245/191Jasmine's GazeSpecial illustration rare$20.70
246/191Lisia's AppealSpecial illustration rare$29.02
247/191Pikachu exHyper rare$81.38
248/191Alolan Exeggutor exHyper rare$10.07
249/191Counter GainHyper rare$2.61
250/191Gravity MountainHyper rare$10.74
251/191Night StretcherHyper rare$9.39
252/191Jet EnergyHyper rare$3.48

Every Surging Sparks card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.

If you are building it

You can own 252 of the 262 priced cards in Surging Sparks for about $355. The median card is $0.16. The remaining $880 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Pikachu ex - 238/191, $286) is 23% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 29% and then a very short, very expensive tail.

Advisor read
Card vs box−5.5% vs the box
chase card · Pikachu ex - 238/191$286.77
sealed booster box · Surging Sparks$303.42
the card94.5% of the box

CHEAPER THAN THE BOX

The single most valuable card in this set costs $16.65 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, as of 2026-09-24.

Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.

The quant read339 recorded points · 605 days
30-day return-1.8%
90-day return-11.5%
Realized vol6%annualized, ~90d daily returns
Max drawdown-47.8%recorded window
Off recorded high-33.4%

Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Medians anchor the return windows so a single outlier day never makes the figure.

Pull ratesmeasured
The chase, priced in packsPikachu ex ($286.77) lands about once per 960 packs · ~26.7 booster boxes · $8,091 of packs at today's box price
TierOdds per packCards in tierExpected per box
Double rare (ex)1 in 6186
Ultra rare (full art)1 in 15212.4
Illustration rare1 in 13232.77
Special illustration rare1 in 87110.41
Hyper rare (gold)1 in 18860.19

Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.

The product desk17 products · 8 lots
Cheapest recorded route to packsSurging Sparks Booster Box $8.40/pack
Biggest 30-day moveSurging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Hisuian Arcanine] +18.0%
ProductPriceFamilyPacks$/pack30d
01Surging Sparks Booster Box$302.27Booster Box36$8.40−0.8%
02Surging Sparks Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive)$270.73ETB (Pokémon Center)··−0.9%
03Surging Sparks Half Booster Box$196.13Half Box··+3.3%
04Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Box$123.21Elite Trainer Box··−4.8%
05Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (LGS)$63.91Booster Bundle6$10.65−0.7%
06Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box$62.57Build & Battle··+1.8%
07Surging Sparks Booster Bundle (Retail)$61.42Booster Bundle6$10.24+2.4%
08Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blisters [Zapdos]$47.25Blister··+2.6%
09Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blisters [Quagsire]$43.44Blister··+6.0%
10Surging Sparks Premium Checklane Blister [Chandelure]$38.25Blister··0.0%
11Surging Sparks Premium Checklane Blister [Alakazam]$30.75Blister··−1.5%
12Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Hisuian Arcanine]$23.48Blister··+18.0%
13Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Sinistcha]$15.01Blister··−1.1%
14Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Wooper]$12.84Blister··−1.5%
15Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Pachirisu]$11.87Blister··+0.6%
16Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster Pack$11.72Booster Pack1$11.72−3.5%
17Surging Sparks Booster Pack$8.46Booster Pack1$8.46+8.7%
Lots · multi-unit · outside per-pack math
Surging Sparks Booster Box Case$2,060.31Booster Boxlot··−2.0%
Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster Pack Case$1,471.47Booster Packlot··+5.6%
Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Box Case$1,298.68Elite Trainer Boxlot··+2.2%
Surging Sparks Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) Case$1,164.79ETB (Pokémon Center)lot··+3.9%
Surging Sparks Booster Bundle Case (LGS)$1,137.22Booster Bundlelot··+2.9%
Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box Display$494.98Build & Battlelot··+19.4%
Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster Pack Bundle [Set of 4]$43.52Booster Packlot··+0.2%
Surging Sparks Booster Pack Art Bundle [Set of 4]$34.44Booster Packlot··−1.5%

Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.

Rip or hold
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes

Should you rip Surging Sparks?

4.5%
of boxes beat the $303 box price

We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Surging Sparks using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($303, $8.43/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 38.2% of the box ask on average.

Median box
$92
Expected value
$116
Bottom 5%
$58
Top 5%
$286
Where 10,000 boxes landed
58.2%
$0-100
32.1%
$100-200
5.1%
$200-300
3.5%
$300-400
0.8%
$400-500
0.2%
$500-600
0.0%
$600-700
0.0%
$700-800
Red buckets end below the $303 box price. 84.9% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.1% doubled it.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
Hit tierPublished ratePoolAvg / boxMean valueBest case
Special illustration rare1-in-87110.4$71.07Pikachu ex ($287)
Illustration rare1-in-13232.77$8.90Latios ($36)
Ultra rare (full art)1-in-15212.4$3.45Pikachu ex ($29)
Double rare (ex)1-in-6186$1.29Latias ex ($6)
Hyper rare (gold)1-in-18860.2$19.72Pikachu ex ($82)
ACE SPEC rare1-in-20 (4.94% +/- 0.46%) (inherited)81.78$1.51Enriching Energy ($6)

Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $303 box price (Surging Sparks Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: 5 of 6 rates were measured on this set; the rest are inherited from an era study of 8,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Stellar Crown) (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 28.5% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $40 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (252 of 252 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.

Set valuereal tcgplayer prices · summed daily · −1.7% 30d · −12.7% 90d
2025-01-27$1,2362026-09-24

Breadth: 84 cards up · 137 down · 41 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Enriching Energy (+47.4%).

Every Pokémon setSurging Sparks market reportPack opening simulatorSealed product pricesWhere the New Slabs Go: 339,436 PSA Submissions in a Month, 42% of Them Japanese, and the Cards Being Graded Fastest Are Gemming LessPulling the Chase Costs 6x to 86x More Than Buying ItThe Big Hit Went From One Per Box to One Every Third BoxLaunch, Mania, Markdown: the Mega Era on Our Own Tape