Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
The short, expensive tail of the set.
You can own 205 of the 215 priced cards in Sv: Scarlet & Violet 151 for about $698. The median card is $0.21. The remaining $1,178 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Charizard ex - 199/165, $358) is 19% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 38% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Medians anchor the return windows so a single outlier day never makes the figure.
| Tier | Odds per pack | Cards in tier | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 8 | 12 | 4.5 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 16 | 16 | 2.25 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 12 | 16 | 3 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 32 | 7 | 1.13 |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1 in 51 | 3 | 0.71 |
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (1,500+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
No published pull-rate study exists for this set, so there is nothing honest to simulate. We only rip sets whose per-pack odds come from a published, sourced study, and an inherited or inferred rate would put an invented number under every figure on this panel.
We publish a rip simulation only where per-pack odds come from a published, sourced study. Which sets have published pull rates counts what exists: 31 of the 110 English sets sold in booster packs, resting on eleven studies.
Breadth: 80 cards up · 112 down · 23 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Switch - 206/165 (+12.2%).