The daily ledger

Daily Buys

The desk’s conviction list. Every night the engine scans the full tracked universe against seven recorded factors; a card must first clear a cohort gate whose setup has historically paid, then carry at least one of those factors, and a day with nothing compelling publishes nothing. Every pick is logged at its entry price the day it appears and scored, wins and losses alike, against the moonstone Pokémon Index for as long as this page exists.

ledger opened August 31, 202671 editionslatest entry marks November 10, 2026
this series · daily

Full-universe scan, no quotas. Fresh candidates every night, a cohort gate plus at least one supporting factor, at most four picks, a 45-day re-pick cooldown, and zero-pick days on the record. Day-keyed ledger, per-card recorded signals only.

sibling series · weekly

Weekly Buys publishes budget-tiered picks once a week from its own factor engine and its own ledger. Same house rules, same index benchmark, different clock. The two series never share picks or scores.

Not financial advice. moonstone is independent research, not an investment adviser; collectibles are speculative and illiquid and can lose most of their value. Read the full disclaimer.

−9.8%mean alpha vs moonstone Index, all marked picks, equal weight
−3.4%mean pick return over the same windows · index averaged +6.4%
−1.3%November 10, 2026 mean alpha · index +1.3% over the window
110/110picks with a fresh mark; the rest are disclosed, never faked
17/110marked picks beating the index so far
Shadow cohort (319 bar-clearing candidates over 46 days, spread-adjusted): ranking edge over the rank-cut candidates +9.5%. Species guard edge +5.1%. This grades whether our ranking and guards add value, not just the survivors.

Reading the record

Three pictures the ledger can support today. Each states its own sample size, because the recorded series is weeks old and a chart that looked like years of history would be a lie.

What the bar refuses

One column per edition. The whole column is every candidate that cleared the factor bar that night; the lit part is what was published. Across 71 editions, 359 candidates cleared and 110 were published, and 26 editions published nothing at all.

publishedcleared the bar, held back
017.535August 31, 2026: 500 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 1, 2026: 500 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedSeptember 2, 2026: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 3, 2026: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 4, 2026: 500 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedSeptember 5, 2026: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 6, 2026: 3,000 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedSeptember 7, 2026: 3,000 scanned, 29 cleared the bar, 2 publishedSeptember 8, 2026: 3,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 9, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 10, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 11, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 13, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedSeptember 14, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 15 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 15, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 16 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 16, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 12 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 17, 2026: 22,000 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 2 publishedSeptember 18, 2026: 24,831 scanned, 10 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 19, 2026: 25,469 scanned, 4 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 20, 2026: 25,471 scanned, 10 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 21, 2026: 25,477 scanned, 7 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 22, 2026: 25,560 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 23, 2026: 25,702 scanned, 9 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 24, 2026: 25,709 scanned, 8 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 25, 2026: 25,709 scanned, 19 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 26, 2026: 25,709 scanned, 17 cleared the bar, 3 publishedSeptember 27, 2026: 25,714 scanned, 24 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 28, 2026: 25,718 scanned, 32 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 29, 2026: 25,777 scanned, 33 cleared the bar, 4 publishedSeptember 30, 2026: 25,816 scanned, 35 cleared the bar, 4 publishedOctober 1, 2026: 25,855 scanned, 5 cleared the bar, 3 publishedOctober 2, 2026: 25,875 scanned, 5 cleared the bar, 3 publishedOctober 3, 2026: 25,916 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 4, 2026: 25,939 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 5, 2026: 26,040 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 6, 2026: 26,057 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 7, 2026: 26,083 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedOctober 8, 2026: 26,124 scanned, 3 cleared the bar, 2 publishedOctober 9, 2026: 26,216 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 10, 2026: 26,253 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 11, 2026: 30,741 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 12, 2026: 30,748 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 13, 2026: 30,764 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 14, 2026: 30,764 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 15, 2026: 30,764 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 16, 2026: 31,042 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 17, 2026: 31,042 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 18, 2026: 31,042 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 19, 2026: 31,042 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedOctober 20, 2026: 31,452 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 21, 2026: 31,534 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 22, 2026: 31,625 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 23, 2026: 31,686 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedOctober 24, 2026: 31,796 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 25, 2026: 31,826 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 26, 2026: 31,964 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedOctober 27, 2026: 32,042 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 28, 2026: 32,143 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedOctober 29, 2026: 32,283 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 30, 2026: 32,381 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 0 publishedOctober 31, 2026: 32,381 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 0 publishedNovember 1, 2026: 32,632 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 0 publishedNovember 2, 2026: 32,783 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedNovember 3, 2026: 32,901 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 publishedNovember 4, 2026: 32,957 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 publishedNovember 5, 2026: 32,995 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedNovember 6, 2026: 33,024 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 publishedNovember 7, 2026: 33,051 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 1 publishedNovember 8, 2026: 33,134 scanned, 3 cleared the bar, 2 publishedNovember 9, 2026: 33,197 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 0 publishedNovember 10, 2026: 33,236 scanned, 3 cleared the bar, 1 published50033,236August 31, 2026November 10, 2026
The strip under the columns is the tracked universe each edition scanned, 500 cards at the open and 33,236 now. Scan counts are not comparable edition to edition because coverage grew; the cleared and published counts are counts of what happened.
Show the numbers
DayScannedClearedPublished
November 10, 202633,23631
November 9, 202633,19720
November 8, 202633,13432
November 7, 202633,05121
November 6, 202633,02422
November 5, 202632,99521
November 4, 202632,95700
November 3, 202632,90111
November 2, 202632,78321
November 1, 202632,63210
October 31, 202632,38110
October 30, 202632,38110
October 29, 202632,28300
October 28, 202632,14322
October 27, 202632,04200
October 26, 202631,96411
October 25, 202631,82600
October 24, 202631,79610
October 23, 202631,68622
October 22, 202631,62521
October 21, 202631,53421
October 20, 202631,45200
October 19, 202631,04222
October 18, 202631,04211
October 17, 202631,04200
October 16, 202631,04200
October 15, 202630,76400
October 14, 202630,76411
October 13, 202630,76421
October 12, 202630,74800
October 11, 202630,74121
October 10, 202626,25311
October 9, 202626,21611
October 8, 202626,12432
October 7, 202626,08322
October 6, 202626,05700
October 5, 202626,04000
October 4, 202625,93910
October 3, 202625,91600
October 2, 202625,87553
October 1, 202625,85553
September 30, 202625,816354
September 29, 202625,777334
September 28, 202625,718324
September 27, 202625,714244
September 26, 202625,709173
September 25, 202625,709194
September 24, 202625,70984
September 23, 202625,70294
September 22, 202625,56064
September 21, 202625,47774
September 20, 202625,471104
September 19, 202625,46944
September 18, 202624,831104
September 17, 202622,00062
September 16, 202622,000124
September 15, 202622,000164
September 14, 202622,000154
September 13, 202622,00000
September 11, 202622,00000
September 10, 202622,00000
September 9, 202622,00000
September 8, 20263,00000
September 7, 20263,000292
September 6, 20263,00011
September 5, 202650000
September 4, 202650022
September 3, 202650000
September 2, 202650000
September 1, 202650022
August 31, 202650064

What gets picked

Every pick published since the ledger opened, n=110.

Vehicle
  • Raw single9788%
  • Slab1312%
Conviction
  • Strong buy4945%
  • Good buy6155%
Entry price
  • Under $206963%
  • $20 to $1002220%
  • $100 to $5001312%
  • $500 and up65%
Composition of all 110 published picks, not of the candidates that cleared the bar. Bands are entry prices exactly as they were logged on publication day.

The ledger

November 10, 202633,236 scanned · 3 cleared the bar · 1 published · this edition
moonstone Pokémon Index 245.2 (Jan 27, 2025 = 100)
Raw singleStrong buy

Surfing Pikachu

Evolutions · raw
entry$10.25pay up to$11.28hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 113 copies graded in the last 36 days came back 0.9% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 21%, a 20.1pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2843 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity7.9 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Surfing Pikachu ranks p97.4 of 2895 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 10, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5464 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6880 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Mega Sharpedo ex: slab pick REJECTED by the trend gate on the SLAB tape: -4.1% vs the graded_snapshots base (day 20743, $77.15) is below -2%. For a slab vehicle the gate marks the slab tape, not the raw tape
November 9, 202633,197 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 33,197 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5445 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6889 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 6 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Mega Sharpedo ex: slab pick REJECTED by the trend gate on the SLAB tape: -4.1% vs the graded_snapshots base (day 20743, $77.15) is below -2%. For a slab vehicle the gate marks the slab tape, not the raw tape
November 8, 202633,134 scanned · 3 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Leafeon VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$9.10pay up to$10.01hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -23% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+11.9%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity3.97 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Leafeon ranks p98.8 of 2891 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 8, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +11.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Espeon - 48/108 (National Championships) [Staff]

League & Championship Cards · raw
entry$441pay up to$485hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem3.5% of 342 PSA submissions grade 10, p31 of 118 tracked OTHER-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 5407 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6914 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 6 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Mega Sharpedo ex: slab pick REJECTED by the trend gate on the SLAB tape: -4.1% vs the graded_snapshots base (day 20743, $77.15) is below -2%. For a slab vehicle the gate marks the slab tape, not the raw tape
November 7, 202633,051 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Ditto VMAX

Shining Fates · raw
entry$5.02pay up to$5.52hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -25% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+4.4%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity4.05 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Ditto ranks p99.2 of 2882 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 7, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 5352 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6947 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 6 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Mega Sharpedo ex: slab pick REJECTED by the trend gate on the SLAB tape: -2.8% vs the graded_snapshots base (day 20743, $77.15) is below -2%. For a slab vehicle the gate marks the slab tape, not the raw tape
November 6, 202633,024 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Lance's Charizard V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$7.43pay up to$8.17hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -37% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+8.0%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity14.12 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem41.1% of 16,783 PSA submissions grade 10, p31 of 1389 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charizard ranks p100 of 2878 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 6, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +8.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Shuckle

Mega Evolution · raw
entry$6.32pay up to$6.95hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity14.74 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Shuckle ranks p87 of 2878 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 6, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5340 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6951 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
November 5, 202632,995 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Latios

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$11.73pay up to$12.90hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem9.3% of 118 PSA submissions grade 10, p5 of 583 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Latios ranks p99.1 of 2877 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 5, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 5338 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6955 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Mega Sharpedo ex: slab pick REJECTED by the trend gate on the SLAB tape: -6.2% vs the graded_snapshots base (day 20741, $79.99) is below -2%. For a slab vehicle the gate marks the slab tape, not the raw tape
November 4, 202632,957 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,957 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5342 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6958 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
November 3, 202632,901 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Greninja ☆

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$20.64pay up to$22.70hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -35% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+4.9%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem5.0% of 61,045 PSA submissions grade 10, p3 of 125 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5340 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6939 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
November 2, 202632,783 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Cresselia

Shrouded Fable · raw
entry$24.68pay up to$27.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demandCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity2.98 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Cresselia ranks p90.7 of 2872 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build November 2, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($205) trades at 7.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($26.33; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p34 of 775 tracked SV-era multiples (n=32 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -6.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5313 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6957 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
November 1, 202632,632 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,632 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5268 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6954 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 31, 202632,381 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,381 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5196 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6905 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 30, 202632,381 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,381 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5202 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6931 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 29, 202632,283 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,283 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5130 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6941 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 28, 202632,143 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Mew V

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$34.54pay up to$37.99hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity5.29 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem49.3% of 2,884 PSA submissions grade 10, p34 of 116 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mew ranks p99.8 of 2826 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 28, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Team Magma's Groudon (EX Team Magma vs Team Aqua)

Deck Exclusives · raw
entry$9.74pay up to$10.71hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem13.1% of 175 PSA submissions grade 10, p24 of 1018 tracked OTHER-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Team Magma's Groudon ranks p82 of 2826 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 28, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -22.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5067 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6922 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 27, 202632,042 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 32,042 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5077 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6915 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 26, 202631,964 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Darkrai GX

Burning Shadows · raw
entry$8.90pay up to$9.79hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity3.76 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem28.9% of 861 PSA submissions grade 10, p29 of 579 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Darkrai ranks p96.7 of 2809 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 26, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 5057 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6912 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 25, 202631,826 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 31,826 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 4991 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6911 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 24, 202631,796 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 31,796 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4992 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6918 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 23, 202631,686 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu V-UNION

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$6.26pay up to$6.89hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.49 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pikachu ranks p99.9 of 2794 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Holon Transceiver - 2007 (Jun Hasebe)

World Championship Decks · raw
entry$11.96pay up to$13.16hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 5 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -19% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+5.7%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +5.7%
  • Trainer cards trade much thinner than Pokemon cards: in our 500-card sales sweep, active trainers recorded a median 4 sales per month vs 22 for Pokemon. Exits can take longer at fair price
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 4942 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6936 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 22, 202631,625 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Lucario GX

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$17.42pay up to$19.16hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem13.0% of 69 PSA submissions grade 10, p8 of 579 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Lucario ranks p93.9 of 2790 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 22, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -10.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4876 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6978 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 21, 202631,534 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Stakataka

Unbroken Bonds · raw
entry$5.89pay up to$6.48hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -17% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+13.5%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +13.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4815 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7011 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 2 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 20, 202631,452 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 31,452 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 4923 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7312 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 19, 202631,042 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Ampharos V

Vivid Voltage · raw
entry$8.02pay up to$8.82hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -27% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+3.4%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity2.46 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Ampharos ranks p94.2 of 2743 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 19, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +3.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Alcremie V

Shining Fates · raw
entry$5.95pay up to$6.55hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoverySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -20% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+2.3%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Alcremie ranks p85.8 of 2743 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 19, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4835 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7264 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 18, 202631,042 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Celebi V

Chilling Reign · raw
entry$12.81pay up to$14.09hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity3.78 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Celebi ranks p99.1 of 2743 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 18, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -6.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4765 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7348 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 17, 202631,042 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 31,042 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4754 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7371 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 16, 202631,042 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 31,042 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4758 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7390 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 15, 202630,764 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 30,764 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4643 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7258 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 14, 202630,764 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Gyarados VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$8.31pay up to$9.14hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 49 copies graded in the last 35 days came back 49% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 65%, a 15.7pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2570 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity3.89 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Gyarados ranks p99.6 of 2725 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 14, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -10.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4616 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7307 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 13, 202630,764 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
SlabGood buy

Budew PSA 10

Ascended Heroes · slab
entry$52.50pay up to$57.75hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Cheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 5 risks
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($52.50) trades at 7.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($6.82; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p32 of 228 tracked ME-era multiples (n=148 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $52.50 via report_features m10 (day 20739, n=148 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 676033)
  • Velocity14.41 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.9%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +31.3% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4574 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7357 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 12, 202630,748 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 30,748 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 4550 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7377 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 11, 202630,741 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Dracozolt V

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$5.28pay up to$5.81hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -28% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+16.9%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +16.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4580 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 7355 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 4 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 10, 202626,253 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Ultra Necrozma GX

Forbidden Light · raw
entry$6.58pay up to$7.24hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoverySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -17% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+5.3%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Ultra Necrozma ranks p81.3 of 2345 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 10, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +5.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 3865 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6370 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 9, 202626,216 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Charizard GX

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$26.95pay up to$29.65hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 102 copies graded in the last 30 days came back 18% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 46%, a 28.4pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2199 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity11.29 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charizard ranks p100 of 2342 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 9, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +9.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 3836 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6392 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 8, 202626,124 scanned · 3 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$10.03pay up to$11.03hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 378 copies graded in the last 31 days came back 5% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 21%, a 15.7pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2191 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem21.0% of 11,965 PSA submissions grade 10, p6 of 1402 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pikachu ranks p99.9 of 2334 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 8, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Carracosta

Black Bolt · raw
entry$11.86pay up to$13.05hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem21.7% of 383 PSA submissions grade 10, p16 of 1269 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 3804 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6351 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 7, 202626,083 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleGood buy

Detective Pikachu

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$6.02pay up to$6.62hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem20.5% of 2,525 PSA submissions grade 10, p18 of 601 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -14.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

M Blastoise EX

Evolutions · raw
entry$19.19pay up to$21.11hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demandCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity3.59 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): M Blastoise ranks p87.6 of 2333 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 7, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($169.50) trades at 7.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($21.96; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p5 of 66 tracked XY-era multiples (n=39 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -12.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 3725 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6391 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 6, 202626,057 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 26,057 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 3688 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6421 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 1 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 5, 202626,040 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 26,040 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 3824 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 6292 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 2 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 4, 202625,939 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 25,939 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 4219 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 5831 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 3, 202625,916 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 25,916 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 4782 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 5266 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 2, 202625,875 scanned · 5 cleared the bar · 3 published
Raw singleGood buy

Galarian Slowpoke

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$7.12pay up to$7.83hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem12.4% of 1,216 PSA submissions grade 10, p3 of 1403 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Beartic

Black Bolt · raw
entry$9.02pay up to$9.92hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem20.4% of 343 PSA submissions grade 10, p13 of 1261 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Poké Pad

Perfect Order · raw
entry$10.98pay up to$12.08hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 5 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -51% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+3.5%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($34) trades at 3.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($10.63; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p12 of 226 tracked ME-era multiples (n=20 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +3.5%
  • Trainer cards trade much thinner than Pokemon cards: in our 500-card sales sweep, active trainers recorded a median 4 sales per month vs 22 for Pokemon. Exits can take longer at fair price
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5262 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 4791 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 2 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
October 1, 202625,855 scanned · 5 cleared the bar · 3 published
Raw singleGood buy

Pidgeotto

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$10.99pay up to$12.09hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 90 copies graded in the last 37 days came back 7% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 18%, a 11.5pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2057 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem18.2% of 4,292 PSA submissions grade 10, p9 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR

Lost Origin · raw
entry$6.17pay up to$6.79hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -18% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+2.5%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Boss's Orders

Ascended Heroes · raw
entry$6.79pay up to$7.47hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoverySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 5 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -54% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+5.7%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Orders ranks p86 of 2322 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build October 1, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +5.7%
  • Trainer cards trade much thinner than Pokemon cards: in our 500-card sales sweep, active trainers recorded a median 4 sales per month vs 22 for Pokemon. Exits can take longer at fair price
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5793 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 23% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 4260 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 30, 202625,816 scanned · 35 cleared the bar · 4 published
SlabStrong buy

Team Rocket's Mimikyu PSA 10

Ascended Heroes · slab
entry$170pay up to$186hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Team Rocket's Mimikyu ranks p94.2 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 30, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($169.50) trades at 8.1x the recorded 30d-average raw ($20.86; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p33 of 229 tracked ME-era multiples (n=303 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $169.50 via report_features m10 (day 20726, n=303 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 676050)
  • Velocity20.63 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem60.3% of 6,816 PSA submissions grade 10, p32 of 41 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -14.4%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +15.1% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleGood buy

Crustle

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.62pay up to$7.28hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem16.1% of 273 PSA submissions grade 10, p6 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -7.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Steelix

Mega Evolution · raw
entry$6.25pay up to$6.88hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity13.18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Steelix ranks p95.9 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 30, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -21.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabStrong buy

Mega Venusaur ex PSA 10

Mega Evolution · slab
entry$76.00pay up to$83.60hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mega Venusaur ranks p94 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 30, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($76) trades at 6.5x the recorded 30d-average raw ($11.74; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p28 of 229 tracked ME-era multiples (n=152 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $76 via report_features m10 (day 20726, n=152 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 654494)
  • Velocity14.75 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.1%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +7.8% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 20 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 11 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5979 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 4035 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 29 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 29, 202625,777 scanned · 33 cleared the bar · 4 published
SlabStrong buy

Mega Greninja ex PSA 10

Chaos Rising · slab
entry$855pay up to$941hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleGem driftVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 5 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mega Greninja ranks p98.7 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 29, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($855) trades at 5.3x the recorded 30d-average raw ($160.57; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p21 of 227 tracked ME-era multiples (n=57 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $855 via graded_snapshots (day 20725, n=57 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 693518)
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 754 copies graded in the last 35 days came back 19% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 29%, a 9.9pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2012 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity5.6 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem29.1% of 1,309 PSA submissions grade 10, p31 of 16 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -12.7%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +10.5% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleGood buy

Pidgey

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$13.83pay up to$15.21hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 94 copies graded in the last 38 days came back 7% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 22%, a 14.8pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 2012 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem22.2% of 6,048 PSA submissions grade 10, p17 of 1261 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -10.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabStrong buy

Mega Charizard X ex PSA 10

Phantasmal Flames · slab
entry$140pay up to$154hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mega Charizard X ranks p99.4 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 29, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($139.97) trades at 5.9x the recorded 30d-average raw ($23.74; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p26 of 227 tracked ME-era multiples (n=732 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $139.97 via report_features m10 (day 20725, n=732 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 662183)
  • Velocity49.82 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem57.3% of 37,166 PSA submissions grade 10, p30 of 40 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -24.1%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +11.5% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
SlabGood buy

Marshadow PSA 10

Mega Evolution · slab
entry$98.24pay up to$108hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Cheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 5 risks
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($98.24) trades at 8.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($11.92; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p33 of 227 tracked ME-era multiples (n=319 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $98.24 via report_features m10 (day 20725, n=319 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 654485)
  • Velocity23.5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -25.3%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +3.4% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 19 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 10 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6574 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3404 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 22 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 28, 202625,718 scanned · 32 cleared the bar · 4 published
SlabStrong buy

Lillie's Determination PSA 10

Mega Evolution · slab
entry$57.00pay up to$62.70hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Determination ranks p90.2 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 28, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($57) trades at 2.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($21.40; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p4 of 226 tracked ME-era multiples (n=88 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $57 via report_features m10 (day 20724, n=88 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 654508)
  • Velocity6.18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem48.9% of 7,885 PSA submissions grade 10, p13 of 40 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.8%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleStrong buy

Mimikyu

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$14.37pay up to$15.81hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.05 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem27.5% of 9,270 PSA submissions grade 10, p12 of 1405 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mimikyu ranks p99.1 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 28, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Darkrai ◇

Ultra Prism · raw
entry$21.10pay up to$23.21hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -15% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+7.1%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem17.3% of 405 PSA submissions grade 10, p16 of 290 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +7.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabStrong buy

Bulbasaur PSA 10

Mega Evolution · slab
entry$126pay up to$138hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Bulbasaur ranks p97.1 of 2320 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 28, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($125.75) trades at 6.3x the recorded 30d-average raw ($19.92; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p27 of 226 tracked ME-era multiples (n=344 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $125.75 via report_features m10 (day 20724, n=344 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 654472)
  • Velocity27.18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -15.0%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 19 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 9 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6952 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3021 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 23 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 27, 202625,714 scanned · 24 cleared the bar · 4 published
SlabStrong buy

Psyduck PSA 10

Ascended Heroes · slab
entry$335pay up to$369hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Psyduck ranks p96.5 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 27, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($340) trades at 5.3x the recorded 30d-average raw ($64.50; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p20 of 225 tracked ME-era multiples (n=746 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $335 via graded_snapshots (day 20723, n=751 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 676038)
  • Velocity70.5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem61.8% of 16,086 PSA submissions grade 10, p32 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -28.1%
  • Own recorded ~30d SLAB tape at entry: +6.3% (the slab vehicle is gated on the graded tape, not the raw tape)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleGood buy

Wigglytuff

Phantasmal Flames · raw
entry$5.37pay up to$5.91hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity11.94 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem51.5% of 9,504 PSA submissions grade 10, p34 of 291 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Wigglytuff ranks p87.4 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 27, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -17.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Revavroom ex

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$5.25pay up to$5.78hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity2.06 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem29.1% of 2,049 PSA submissions grade 10, p34 of 1260 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Lugia V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$17.38pay up to$19.12hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem1.4% of 580 PSA submissions grade 10, p0 of 1395 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Lugia ranks p99.6 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 27, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -7.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 13 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 7 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6910 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3074 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 21 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 26, 202625,709 scanned · 17 cleared the bar · 3 published
Raw singleGood buy

Piplup

Phantasmal Flames · raw
entry$13.19pay up to$14.51hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity23.42 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem50.3% of 18,493 PSA submissions grade 10, p31 of 291 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -8.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Charizard Y ex

Ascended Heroes · raw
entry$5.87pay up to$6.46hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity23.8 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -15.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Diancie ex

Ascended Heroes · raw
entry$6.92pay up to$7.61hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity21.93 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +1.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (7)
  • 7 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6866 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3094 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 23 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Psyduck: slab pick REJECTED, the two recorded PSA 10 marks disagree 30.6% (limit 5%): report_features m10 $236 (day 20719) vs graded_snapshots $340 (day 20721); no entry is stated from a disputed tape
September 25, 202625,709 scanned · 19 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Scizor

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$14.27pay up to$15.70hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 104 copies graded in the last 42 days came back 6% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 15%, a 9.1pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1844 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity3.23 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem14.8% of 9,664 PSA submissions grade 10, p5 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Scizor ranks p98.3 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -6.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Gloom

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$22.43pay up to$24.67hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocity
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 49 copies graded in the last 17 days came back 4% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 19%, a 15.4pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1844 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity10.27 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Iris's Fighting Spirit

Ascended Heroes · raw
entry$26.73pay up to$29.40hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem47.6% of 1,261 PSA submissions grade 10, p3 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($172.61) trades at 5.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($29.75; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p30 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=41 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -17.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Venipede

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.43pay up to$8.17hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem12.8% of 196 PSA submissions grade 10, p3 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 12 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 3 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6880 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3089 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 21 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 24, 202625,709 scanned · 8 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Rayquaza

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$8.53pay up to$9.38hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -26% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+9.1%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity5.13 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem28.3% of 2,162 PSA submissions grade 10, p13 of 1393 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Rayquaza ranks p100 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +9.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Charizard ex

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$33.25pay up to$36.58hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 445 copies graded in the last 44 days came back 9% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 26%, a 16.9pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1894 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity11.58 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charizard ranks p100 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Dwebble

Black Bolt · raw
entry$55.58pay up to$61.14hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -17% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+5.4%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem16.7% of 1,724 PSA submissions grade 10, p12 of 230 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Dwebble ranks p84.6 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +5.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Jacinthe

Perfect Order · raw
entry$22.08pay up to$24.29hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity5.13 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem60.3% of 806 PSA submissions grade 10, p24 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($61.35) trades at 2.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($22.86; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p13 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=45 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 3 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6937 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3072 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 17 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 23, 202625,702 scanned · 9 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Dark Sylveon V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$6.90pay up to$7.59hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 262 copies graded in the last 34 days came back 26% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 37%, a 11.0pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1868 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity2.42 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem36.6% of 9,110 PSA submissions grade 10, p24 of 1393 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -18.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Meowth ex

Perfect Order · raw
entry$12.27pay up to$13.50hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -48% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+4.7%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Meowth ranks p96.5 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabGood buy

Rosa's Encouragement PSA 10

Perfect Order · slab
entry$133pay up to$147hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Cheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($133.25) trades at 2.9x the recorded 30d-average raw ($46.43; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p13 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=93 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $133.25 via graded_snapshots (day 20719, n=93 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 684392)
  • Velocity6.07 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem61.8% of 2,745 PSA submissions grade 10, p30 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -16.7%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleStrong buy

Mewtwo V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$8.02pay up to$8.82hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -18% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+2.1%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity2.33 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mewtwo ranks p99.7 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 23, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 4 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6916 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3096 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 13 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 22, 202625,560 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Whirlipede

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.84pay up to$7.52hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem21.9% of 297 PSA submissions grade 10, p15 of 1188 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Klang

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.30pay up to$6.93hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem23.4% of 197 PSA submissions grade 10, p18 of 1188 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -1.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Umbreon GX

Sun & Moon · raw
entry$25.14pay up to$27.65hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem25.2% of 4,089 PSA submissions grade 10, p20 of 288 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Umbreon ranks p99.7 of 2310 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 22, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Floette ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$24.50pay up to$26.95hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($123.75) trades at 4.4x the recorded 30d-average raw ($28.43; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p24 of 252 tracked ME-era multiples (n=27 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -22.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6945 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3082 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 12 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 21, 202625,477 scanned · 7 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Palpitoad

Black Bolt · raw
entry$10.64pay up to$11.70hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem16.2% of 630 PSA submissions grade 10, p6 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -16.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Cryogonal

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.44pay up to$8.18hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem16.8% of 286 PSA submissions grade 10, p7 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -20.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Tynamo

Black Bolt · raw
entry$16.94pay up to$18.63hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem17.8% of 765 PSA submissions grade 10, p8 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -18.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Pawniard

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.85pay up to$8.64hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem18.2% of 369 PSA submissions grade 10, p9 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -8.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 3 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6864 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3086 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 9 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 20, 202625,471 scanned · 10 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Gengar V

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$10.37pay up to$11.41hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 91 copies graded in the last 32 days came back 22% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 35%, a 13.2pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1472 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem35.2% of 3,385 PSA submissions grade 10, p21 of 1342 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Gengar ranks p99.9 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 20, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Beheeyem

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.50pay up to$7.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem13.8% of 245 PSA submissions grade 10, p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Golett

Black Bolt · raw
entry$9.32pay up to$10.25hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem14.9% of 228 PSA submissions grade 10, p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Pansage

Black Bolt · raw
entry$18.15pay up to$19.97hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem15.0% of 326 PSA submissions grade 10, p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -23.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 6 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6808 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3118 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 9 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 19, 202625,469 scanned · 4 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Froakie

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.23pay up to$5.75hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity12.09 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -45.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Dragalge ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$30.05pay up to$33.06hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity6.36 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($150) trades at 4.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($35.64; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p23 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=40 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -24.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Cinccino ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$52.16pay up to$57.38hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demandCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity3.18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Cinccino ranks p88.3 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 19, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($170) trades at 3.1x the recorded 30d-average raw ($55.46; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p15 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=28 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -15.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Pidgeot EX

Evolutions · raw
entry$9.50pay up to$10.45hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoverySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -16% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+7.0%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pidgeot ranks p94.8 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 19, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +7.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 6808 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3124 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 7 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 18, 202624,831 scanned · 10 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

AZ's Tranquility

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$21.95pay up to$24.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity2.8 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem53.0% of 151 PSA submissions grade 10, p22 of 41 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($89.76) trades at 3.6x the recorded 30d-average raw ($24.74; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p18 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=11 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -21.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Ampharos

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.41pay up to$5.95hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity18.2 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Ampharos ranks p96.2 of 2231 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 18, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -22.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Roxie's Performance

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$20.15pay up to$22.17hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem47.8% of 115 PSA submissions grade 10, p7 of 41 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Xerneas

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.59pay up to$6.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity10.5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Xerneas ranks p83.6 of 2231 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 18, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -31.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 6 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6790 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3147 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 17, 202622,000 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleGood buy

Switch

Sun & Moon · raw
entry$10.02pay up to$11.02hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem27.5% of 353 PSA submissions grade 10, p31 of 634 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -10.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Alolan Exeggutor GX

Crimson Invasion · raw
entry$6.74pay up to$7.41hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -26% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+3.5%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +3.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 4 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6742 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3131 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 6 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 16, 202622,000 scanned · 12 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$24.09pay up to$26.50hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 41 copies graded in the last 43 days came back 7% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 17%, a 9.8pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1311 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem17.2% of 1,119 PSA submissions grade 10, p14 of 301 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pikachu ranks p99.8 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 16, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Celebi

Vivid Voltage · raw
entry$6.77pay up to$7.45hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity7.88 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Celebi ranks p94.5 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 16, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Blastoise

Team Up · raw
entry$11.03pay up to$12.13hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem25.2% of 329 PSA submissions grade 10, p28 of 652 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Blastoise ranks p99 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 16, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -57.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Shining Volcanion

Shining Legends · raw
entry$6.23pay up to$6.85hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.38 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -12.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6729 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3151 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 15, 202622,000 scanned · 16 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Galarian Moltres

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$12.81pay up to$14.09hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 368 copies graded in the last 33 days came back 10% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 24%, a 14.1pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1171 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem23.6% of 13,524 PSA submissions grade 10, p8 of 1308 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Galarian Moltres ranks p89.6 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 15, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Lucario VSTAR

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$10.84pay up to$11.92hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity14.39 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Lucario ranks p98.6 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 15, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -7.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabStrong buy

Venusaur VMAX PSA 10

SWSH Black Star Promos · slab
entry$139pay up to$153hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Venusaur ranks p95.9 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 15, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($138.75) trades at 5.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($24.36; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p31 of 753 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=78 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $138.75 via graded_snapshots (day 20711, n=78 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 234298)
  • Velocity5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -23.0%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleStrong buy

Jirachi

Vivid Voltage · raw
entry$8.70pay up to$9.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.28 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Jirachi ranks p93 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 15, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 4 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 8 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5439 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3169 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 14, 202622,000 scanned · 15 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Mew V

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$5.06pay up to$5.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -44% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+12.9%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem30.3% of 1,536 PSA submissions grade 10, p15 of 1398 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mew ranks p100 of 2092 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 14, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +12.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Greninja ☆

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$22.66pay up to$24.93hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem5.3% of 56,974 PSA submissions grade 10, p4 of 77 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Sobble

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$5.92pay up to$6.51hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem26.9% of 279 PSA submissions grade 10, p12 of 1398 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Charmander

Dragon Majesty · raw
entry$5.06pay up to$5.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem18.8% of 85 PSA submissions grade 10, p25 of 485 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charmander ranks p96.3 of 2092 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build September 14, 2026)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 9 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5355 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3181 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 13, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5380 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3191 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 11, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5367 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3218 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 10, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5345 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3236 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 9, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5350 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3231 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 8, 20263,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 3,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 2012 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 242 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
September 7, 20263,000 scanned · 29 cleared the bar · 2 published
SlabStrong buy

Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10

Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery · slab
entry$533pay up to$586hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandTight floatCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Species demandMewtwo ranks p98.8 of 489 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 7, 2026)
  • Tight float93 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 46,083 = 0.20% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($532.50) trades at 1.9x the recorded 30d-average raw ($275.53; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p10 of 125 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=742 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $532.50 via report_features m10 (day 20703, n=742 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 477057)
  • Velocity18.67 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
SlabStrong buy

Charizard V PSA 10

Champion's Path · slab
entry$396pay up to$436hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandTight floatCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Species demandCharizard ranks p99 of 489 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 7, 2026)
  • Tight float44 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 29,021 = 0.15% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($396) trades at 1.5x the recorded 30d-average raw ($268.28; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p2 of 125 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=103 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $396 via graded_snapshots (day 20703, n=103 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 223078)
  • Velocity2.1 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 25 further candidate(s) cleared the 3-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 86 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 22 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 7 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Lugia V: slab pick REJECTED, the two recorded PSA 10 marks disagree 9.7% (limit 5%): report_features m10 $1,276 (day 20703) vs graded_snapshots $1,413 (day 20675); no entry is stated from a disputed tape
  • Reshiram ex: slab pick REJECTED, the two recorded PSA 10 marks disagree 10.0% (limit 5%): report_features m10 $1,215 (day 20703) vs graded_snapshots $1,350 (day 20675); no entry is stated from a disputed tape
September 6, 20263,000 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Eevee & Snorlax GX

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$192pay up to$211hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandEevee & Snorlax ranks p86 of 488 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 6, 2026)
  • Tight float28 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 11,315 = 0.25% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Uptrend+14.7% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $191.87 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 95 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 27 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 5, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 32 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 4 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 4, 2026500 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Umbreon VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$2,380pay up to$2,618hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandUmbreon ranks p98.7 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 4, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($4,200) trades at 1.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($2,370; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p9 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=425 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+9.1% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $2,380 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -1.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Gengar VMAX

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$1,035pay up to$1,138hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandGengar ranks p94.9 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 4, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($2,371) trades at 2.3x the recorded 30d-average raw ($1,041; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p25 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=383 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+12.7% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $1,035 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 28 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 4 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 3, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 2, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
September 1, 2026500 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu ex

Surging Sparks · raw
entry$291pay up to$320hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandPikachu ranks p100 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 1, 2026)
  • Tight float104 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 30,213 = 0.34% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 trades at 3.2x raw, p32 of 117 tracked SV-era multiples (n=511 PSA 10 comps). DISCLOSED: no 30d-average raw on record for this card, so the multiple is stated against SPOT raw and this factor is down-weighted (a rallying spot price can compress the multiple)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Mega Charizard X ex

Phantasmal Flames · raw
entry$703pay up to$773hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandMega Charizard X ranks p92.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build September 1, 2026)
  • Tight float96 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 49,604 = 0.19% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 trades at 2.9x raw, p31 of 39 tracked OTHER-era multiples (n=1822 PSA 10 comps). DISCLOSED: no 30d-average raw on record for this card, so the multiple is stated against SPOT raw and this factor is down-weighted (a rallying spot price can compress the multiple)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
August 31, 2026500 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Rayquaza VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$1,249pay up to$1,374hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandRayquaza ranks p93.7 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build August 30, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($2,777) trades at 2.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($1,252; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p23 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=386 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+21.2% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $1,249 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Sylveon V

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$205pay up to$225hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandSylveon ranks p80.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build August 30, 2026)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($415.50) trades at 2.0x the recorded 30d-average raw ($205.42; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p19 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=244 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+24.1% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $204.96 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Glaceon VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$312pay up to$343hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandGlaceon ranks p82.3 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build August 30, 2026)
  • Tight float40 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 15,269 = 0.26% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($521.26) trades at 1.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($304.42; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p8 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=304 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Espeon VMAX

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$347pay up to$382hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandEspeon ranks p80.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build August 30, 2026)
  • Tight float50 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 20,753 = 0.24% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($630.85) trades at 1.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($347.84; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p9 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=304 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the 3-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 27 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)

Entries are append-only by construction: every day stays on this page forever, including the losers and the zero-pick days, and stays scored in the table below.

Scorecard

Every mark against the round trip

110 logged picks, each marked at today’s recorded price. Horizontal position is how long the pick has been held; vertical position is its gross return. The dashed line is +24.1%, the move a pick has to make before a reader keeps a cent, buying at the ask and selling net of fees.

mark above entrymark below entrybreak-even after costs
−24%−12%0%+12%+24%0d37.5d75dSurfing Pikachu: 0.0% after 1 day (entry $10.25)Leafeon VMAX: 0.0% after 3 days (entry $9.10)Espeon - 48/108 (National Championships) [Staff]: 0.0% after 3 days (entry $441.35)Ditto VMAX: +7.6% after 4 days (entry $5.02)Lance's Charizard V: −11.4% after 5 days (entry $7.43)Shuckle: 0.0% after 5 days (entry $6.32)Latios: −0.3% after 6 days (entry $11.73)Greninja ☆: −2.3% after 8 days (entry $20.64)Cresselia: +1.7% after 9 days (entry $24.68)Mew V: +5.2% after 14 days (entry $34.54)Team Magma's Groudon (EX Team Magma vs Team Aqua): +1.4% after 14 days (entry $9.74)Darkrai GX: −1.0% after 16 days (entry $8.90)Pikachu V-UNION: −7.3% after 19 days (entry $6.26)Holon Transceiver - 2007 (Jun Hasebe): 0.0% after 19 days (entry $11.96)Lucario GX: +5.4% after 20 days (entry $17.42)Stakataka: 0.0% after 21 days (entry $5.89)Ampharos V: −18.0% after 23 days (entry $8.02)Alcremie V: −7.6% after 23 days (entry $5.95)Celebi V: +48.3% after 24 days (entry $12.81)Gyarados VMAX: −1.0% after 28 days (entry $8.31)Budew PSA 10: −4.8% after 29 days (entry $52.50)Dracozolt V: −12.5% after 31 days (entry $5.28)Ultra Necrozma GX: +7.1% after 32 days (entry $6.58)Charizard GX: +1.7% after 33 days (entry $26.95)Pikachu: +1.3% after 34 days (entry $10.03)Carracosta: −15.6% after 34 days (entry $11.86)Detective Pikachu: −10.5% after 35 days (entry $6.02)M Blastoise EX: +5.9% after 35 days (entry $19.19)Galarian Slowpoke: +16.7% after 40 days (entry $7.12)Beartic: −3.4% after 40 days (entry $9.02)Poké Pad: −10.5% after 40 days (entry $10.98)Pidgeotto: −9.6% after 41 days (entry $10.99)Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR: +13.6% after 41 days (entry $6.17)Boss's Orders: −16.5% after 41 days (entry $6.79)Team Rocket's Mimikyu PSA 10: −26.3% after 42 days (entry $169.50)Crustle: −17.2% after 42 days (entry $6.62)Steelix: −7.7% after 42 days (entry $6.25)Mega Venusaur ex PSA 10: −2.7% after 42 days (entry $76.00)Mega Greninja ex PSA 10: −13.3% after 43 days (entry $855.00)Pidgey: −25.6% after 43 days (entry $13.83)Mega Charizard X ex PSA 10: −12.5% after 43 days (entry $139.97)Marshadow PSA 10: −14.5% after 43 days (entry $98.24)Lillie's Determination PSA 10: −8.8% after 44 days (entry $57.00)Mimikyu: −0.2% after 44 days (entry $14.37)Darkrai ◇: +201.5% after 44 days (entry $21.10)Bulbasaur PSA 10: −14.1% after 44 days (entry $125.75)Psyduck PSA 10: −30.6% after 45 days (entry $335.00)Wigglytuff: −13.8% after 45 days (entry $5.37)Revavroom ex: −7.0% after 45 days (entry $5.25)Lugia V: +150.6% after 45 days (entry $17.38)Piplup: −26.0% after 46 days (entry $13.19)Mega Charizard Y ex: −15.2% after 46 days (entry $5.87)Mega Diancie ex: −25.7% after 46 days (entry $6.92)Scizor: −19.5% after 47 days (entry $14.27)Gloom: −22.1% after 47 days (entry $22.43)Iris's Fighting Spirit: −26.7% after 47 days (entry $26.73)Venipede: −12.0% after 47 days (entry $7.43)Rayquaza: +15.9% after 48 days (entry $8.53)Charizard ex: +0.9% after 48 days (entry $33.25)Dwebble: −26.2% after 48 days (entry $55.58)Jacinthe: −12.5% after 48 days (entry $22.08)Dark Sylveon V: +2.3% after 49 days (entry $6.90)Meowth ex: −7.2% after 49 days (entry $12.27)Rosa's Encouragement PSA 10: +5.1% after 49 days (entry $133.25)Mewtwo V: −14.7% after 49 days (entry $8.02)Whirlipede: −15.2% after 50 days (entry $6.84)Klang: +1.4% after 50 days (entry $6.30)Umbreon GX: +1.9% after 50 days (entry $25.14)Mega Floette ex: −18.4% after 50 days (entry $24.50)Palpitoad: −15.5% after 51 days (entry $10.64)Cryogonal: −8.7% after 51 days (entry $7.44)Tynamo: −10.4% after 51 days (entry $16.94)Pawniard: −19.1% after 51 days (entry $7.85)Gengar V: +24.7% after 52 days (entry $10.37)Beheeyem: −16.3% after 52 days (entry $6.50)Golett: −21.1% after 52 days (entry $9.32)Pansage: −31.4% after 52 days (entry $18.15)Froakie: −23.9% after 53 days (entry $5.23)Mega Dragalge ex: −27.1% after 53 days (entry $30.05)Cinccino ex: −28.5% after 53 days (entry $52.16)Pidgeot EX: +0.7% after 53 days (entry $9.50)AZ's Tranquility: −11.9% after 54 days (entry $21.95)Ampharos: −33.5% after 54 days (entry $5.41)Roxie's Performance: −23.7% after 54 days (entry $20.15)Xerneas: −28.6% after 54 days (entry $5.59)Switch: 0.0% after 55 days (entry $10.02)Alolan Exeggutor GX: −5.0% after 55 days (entry $6.74)Pikachu: −6.2% after 56 days (entry $24.09)Celebi: +44.6% after 56 days (entry $6.77)Blastoise: −6.1% after 56 days (entry $11.03)Shining Volcanion: +13.3% after 56 days (entry $6.23)Galarian Moltres: +9.3% after 57 days (entry $12.81)Lucario VSTAR: −20.0% after 57 days (entry $10.84)Venusaur VMAX PSA 10: +9.8% after 57 days (entry $138.75)Jirachi: +25.3% after 57 days (entry $8.70)Mew V: −2.4% after 58 days (entry $5.06)Greninja ☆: −11.0% after 58 days (entry $22.66)Sobble: −13.7% after 58 days (entry $5.92)Charmander: −4.3% after 58 days (entry $5.06)Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10: −5.9% after 65 days (entry $532.50)Charizard V PSA 10: +6.1% after 65 days (entry $396.00)Eevee & Snorlax GX: +6.0% after 66 days (entry $191.87)Umbreon VMAX: −2.3% after 68 days (entry $2380.34)Gengar VMAX: −2.4% after 68 days (entry $1034.78)Pikachu ex: −17.0% after 71 days (entry $290.75)Mega Charizard X ex: −18.9% after 71 days (entry $703.07)Rayquaza VMAX: −2.2% after 72 days (entry $1249.13)Sylveon V: −9.8% after 72 days (entry $204.96)Glaceon VMAX: −6.6% after 72 days (entry $311.90)Espeon VMAX: −2.6% after 72 days (entry $347.32)
6 of 110 marks clear the round trip. The oldest position here is 75 days old against a stated horizon of at least 12 months, so these are interim marks and not verdicts. Every pick is listed with its entry, mark and return in the table below.
DayPickEntryMarkReturnAlphaStatus
August 31, 2026Rayquaza VMAX$1,249$1,221−2.2%−18.3%interim mark
August 31, 2026Sylveon V$205$185−9.8%−26.0%interim mark
August 31, 2026Glaceon VMAX$312$291−6.6%−22.7%interim mark
August 31, 2026Espeon VMAX$347$338−2.6%−18.7%interim mark
September 1, 2026Pikachu ex$291$241−17.0%−31.0%interim mark
September 1, 2026Mega Charizard X ex$703$570−18.9%−32.9%interim mark
September 4, 2026Umbreon VMAX$2,380$2,325−2.3%−15.6%interim mark
September 4, 2026Gengar VMAX$1,035$1,010−2.4%−15.7%interim mark
September 6, 2026Eevee & Snorlax GX$192$203+6.0%−7.3%interim mark
September 7, 2026Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10$533$501−5.9%−18.7%interim mark
September 7, 2026Charizard V PSA 10$396$420+6.1%−6.7%interim mark
September 14, 2026Mew V$5.06$4.94−2.4%−8.7%interim mark
September 14, 2026Greninja ☆$22.66$20.17−11.0%−17.3%interim mark
September 14, 2026Sobble$5.92$5.11−13.7%−20.0%interim mark
September 14, 2026Charmander$5.06$4.84−4.3%−10.7%interim mark
September 15, 2026Galarian Moltres$12.81$14.00+9.3%+3.7%interim mark
September 15, 2026Lucario VSTAR$10.84$8.67−20.0%−25.6%interim mark
September 15, 2026Venusaur VMAX PSA 10$139$152+9.8%+4.2%interim mark
September 15, 2026Jirachi$8.70$10.90+25.3%+19.7%interim mark
September 16, 2026Pikachu$24.09$22.59−6.2%−11.8%interim mark
September 16, 2026Celebi$6.77$9.79+44.6%+39.1%interim mark
September 16, 2026Blastoise$11.03$10.36−6.1%−11.6%interim mark
September 16, 2026Shining Volcanion$6.23$7.06+13.3%+7.8%interim mark
September 17, 2026Switch$10.02$10.020.0%−5.5%interim mark
September 17, 2026Alolan Exeggutor GX$6.74$6.40−5.0%−10.6%interim mark
September 18, 2026AZ's Tranquility$21.95$19.34−11.9%−17.8%interim mark
September 18, 2026Ampharos$5.41$3.60−33.5%−39.4%interim mark
September 18, 2026Roxie's Performance$20.15$15.38−23.7%−29.6%interim mark
September 18, 2026Xerneas$5.59$3.99−28.6%−34.6%interim mark
September 19, 2026Froakie$5.23$3.98−23.9%−29.8%interim mark
September 19, 2026Mega Dragalge ex$30.05$21.92−27.1%−33.0%interim mark
September 19, 2026Cinccino ex$52.16$37.28−28.5%−34.4%interim mark
September 19, 2026Pidgeot EX$9.50$9.57+0.7%−5.2%interim mark
September 20, 2026Gengar V$10.37$12.93+24.7%+19.2%interim mark
September 20, 2026Beheeyem$6.50$5.44−16.3%−21.8%interim mark
September 20, 2026Golett$9.32$7.35−21.1%−26.6%interim mark
September 20, 2026Pansage$18.15$12.45−31.4%−36.9%interim mark
September 21, 2026Palpitoad$10.64$8.99−15.5%−20.7%interim mark
September 21, 2026Cryogonal$7.44$6.79−8.7%−13.9%interim mark
September 21, 2026Tynamo$16.94$15.17−10.4%−15.7%interim mark
September 21, 2026Pawniard$7.85$6.35−19.1%−24.3%interim mark
September 22, 2026Whirlipede$6.84$5.80−15.2%−20.3%interim mark
September 22, 2026Klang$6.30$6.39+1.4%−3.6%interim mark
September 22, 2026Umbreon GX$25.14$25.61+1.9%−3.2%interim mark
September 22, 2026Mega Floette ex$24.50$19.98−18.4%−23.5%interim mark
September 23, 2026Dark Sylveon V$6.90$7.06+2.3%−2.5%interim mark
September 23, 2026Meowth ex$12.27$11.39−7.2%−12.0%interim mark
September 23, 2026Rosa's Encouragement PSA 10$133$140+5.1%+0.2%interim mark
September 23, 2026Mewtwo V$8.02$6.84−14.7%−19.6%interim mark
September 24, 2026Rayquaza$8.53$9.89+15.9%+11.1%interim mark
September 24, 2026Charizard ex$33.25$33.54+0.9%−4.0%interim mark
September 24, 2026Dwebble$55.58$41.00−26.2%−31.1%interim mark
September 24, 2026Jacinthe$22.08$19.32−12.5%−17.4%interim mark
September 25, 2026Scizor$14.27$11.49−19.5%−25.5%interim mark
September 25, 2026Gloom$22.43$17.48−22.1%−28.1%interim mark
September 25, 2026Iris's Fighting Spirit$26.73$19.60−26.7%−32.7%interim mark
September 25, 2026Venipede$7.43$6.54−12.0%−18.0%interim mark
September 26, 2026Piplup$13.19$9.76−26.0%−29.2%interim mark
September 26, 2026Mega Charizard Y ex$5.87$4.98−15.2%−18.3%interim mark
September 26, 2026Mega Diancie ex$6.92$5.14−25.7%−28.9%interim mark
September 27, 2026Psyduck PSA 10$335$233−30.6%−36.7%interim mark
September 27, 2026Wigglytuff$5.37$4.63−13.8%−19.9%interim mark
September 27, 2026Revavroom ex$5.25$4.88−7.0%−13.1%interim mark
September 27, 2026Lugia V$17.38$43.55+150.6%+144.5%interim mark
September 28, 2026Lillie's Determination PSA 10$57.00$52.00−8.8%−15.0%interim mark
September 28, 2026Mimikyu$14.37$14.34−0.2%−6.4%interim mark
September 28, 2026Darkrai ◇$21.10$63.61+201.5%+195.3%interim mark
September 28, 2026Bulbasaur PSA 10$126$108−14.1%−20.3%interim mark
September 29, 2026Mega Greninja ex PSA 10$855$741−13.3%−19.6%interim mark
September 29, 2026Pidgey$13.83$10.29−25.6%−31.9%interim mark
September 29, 2026Mega Charizard X ex PSA 10$140$123−12.5%−18.7%interim mark
September 29, 2026Marshadow PSA 10$98.24$84.00−14.5%−20.8%interim mark
September 30, 2026Team Rocket's Mimikyu PSA 10$170$125−26.3%−32.5%interim mark
September 30, 2026Crustle$6.62$5.48−17.2%−23.5%interim mark
September 30, 2026Steelix$6.25$5.77−7.7%−13.9%interim mark
September 30, 2026Mega Venusaur ex PSA 10$76.00$73.97−2.7%−8.9%interim mark
October 1, 2026Pidgeotto$10.99$9.93−9.6%−15.6%interim mark
October 1, 2026Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR$6.17$7.01+13.6%+7.7%interim mark
October 1, 2026Boss's Orders$6.79$5.67−16.5%−22.4%interim mark
October 2, 2026Galarian Slowpoke$7.12$8.31+16.7%+10.1%interim mark
October 2, 2026Beartic$9.02$8.71−3.4%−10.1%interim mark
October 2, 2026Poké Pad$10.98$9.83−10.5%−17.1%interim mark
October 7, 2026Detective Pikachu$6.02$5.39−10.5%−17.1%interim mark
October 7, 2026M Blastoise EX$19.19$20.33+5.9%−0.7%interim mark
October 8, 2026Pikachu$10.03$10.16+1.3%−5.3%interim mark
October 8, 2026Carracosta$11.86$10.01−15.6%−22.2%interim mark
October 9, 2026Charizard GX$26.95$27.40+1.7%−6.2%interim mark
October 10, 2026Ultra Necrozma GX$6.58$7.05+7.1%+0.7%interim mark
October 11, 2026Dracozolt V$5.28$4.62−12.5%−18.9%interim mark
October 13, 2026Budew PSA 10$52.50$49.99−4.8%−10.7%interim mark
October 14, 2026Gyarados VMAX$8.31$8.23−1.0%−6.9%interim mark
October 18, 2026Celebi V$12.81$19.00+48.3%+43.7%interim mark
October 19, 2026Ampharos V$8.02$6.58−18.0%−22.7%interim mark
October 19, 2026Alcremie V$5.95$5.50−7.6%−12.3%interim mark
October 21, 2026Stakataka$5.89$5.890.0%−5.8%interim mark
October 22, 2026Lucario GX$17.42$18.36+5.4%+0.7%interim mark
October 23, 2026Pikachu V-UNION$6.26$5.80−7.3%−10.9%interim mark
October 23, 2026Holon Transceiver - 2007 (Jun Hasebe)$11.96$11.960.0%−3.5%interim mark
October 26, 2026Darkrai GX$8.90$8.81−1.0%−4.6%interim mark
October 28, 2026Mew V$34.54$36.35+5.2%+2.0%interim mark
October 28, 2026Team Magma's Groudon (EX Team Magma vs Team Aqua)$9.74$9.88+1.4%−1.8%interim mark
November 2, 2026Cresselia$24.68$25.09+1.7%−4.6%interim mark
November 3, 2026Greninja ☆$20.64$20.17−2.3%−9.7%interim mark
November 5, 2026Latios$11.73$11.70−0.3%−7.8%interim mark
November 6, 2026Lance's Charizard V$7.43$6.58−11.4%−20.0%interim mark
November 6, 2026Shuckle$6.32$6.320.0%−8.5%interim mark
November 7, 2026Ditto VMAX$5.02$5.40+7.6%+6.0%interim mark
November 8, 2026Leafeon VMAX$9.10$9.100.0%−1.5%interim mark
November 8, 2026Espeon - 48/108 (National Championships) [Staff]$441$4410.0%−1.5%interim mark
November 10, 2026Surfing Pikachu$10.25$10.250.0%−1.3%interim mark

Factor attribution (live ledger)

FactorPicksMean alpha
Species demand64−8.2%
Gem drift14−9.7%
Tight float7−19.7%
Cheap multiple30−18.9%
Velocity53−12.1%
Uptrend5−16.6%
Recovery210.0%

Methodology & revision log

Why this engine looks nothing like Weekly Buys. Before writing it we scored the weekly ledger’s 72 marked picks factor by factor (diagnosis run August 30, 2026). The findings drove every design choice, and we publish them: print-clock rode on 67 of 72 marked picks at a 26.9% win rate and −3.07% mean alpha, so a factor attached to almost every pick selects nothing and is not a daily factor; stamp-freeze (0 wins in 5) and sealed-ev (0 wins in 4) are dropped; and static cohort evidence lost −4.68% mean alpha while the picked card’s own tape fell, so every daily factor is a per-card recorded signal and no pick may fight its own falling tape.

The cohort gate, then a factor. A card must clear the cohort gate and then at least one of seven typed factors, each computed nightly from recorded tapes with disclosed formulas: species-demand (the species’ demand-index percentile among all tracked species, at or above p80), finish-favor (the finish class in the favored tail of finish cohorts by median 90-day trend, p75 or higher, silent until the tape is deep enough), gem-drift (recent gem share at least 3 points below the lifetime rate: new top-grade supply tightening), float-tight (active TCGplayer listings under 0.5% of PSA pop, pop 500+), cheap-multiple (PSA 10 premium in the cheapest 35% of its era cohort on 10+ comps), velocity (2+ verified PSA 10 sales per week), and uptrend (the card’s own recorded tape up 8%+ over roughly 90 days). Two hard gates apply before any factor counts: a fresh entry mark from the daily price dump, and a 30-day own-tape trend no worse than −2%. At most four picks publish per day, ranked by factor count then summed factor strength; a picked card cannot re-enter for 45 days, so a single name can never compound across editions the way the weekly diagnosis caught.

Prices, marks, and vehicles. Raw picks enter and are marked at the TCGplayer market price from our daily full-catalog sync; slab picks (published when the cheap-multiple case rides a deep PSA 10 tape of 50+ recorded comps) enter and are marked at the eBay PSA 10 sold median from our graded series. Entry and mark always share one source, recorded in the append-only ledger on publication day and never edited. “Pay up to” is a discipline ceiling at entry +10%, not a valuation. Alpha is the pick’s return minus the moonstone Pokémon Index over the same window. Marks are unrealized mid-horizon readings; verdicts are issued when a pick reaches its stated horizon. The factor-attribution table above retires any factor that fails to earn alpha, exactly as the weekly series’ attribution loop exposed its losers.

Revision log. v1.0 · August 30, 2026: engine built from the weekly-ledger diagnosis (72 marked picks); factor set calibrated on the live 500-card feature universe (23 candidates cleared the three-factor bar on calibration day); day-keyed ledger opened alongside the untouched weekly ledger. Criteria changes will be logged here and never applied retroactively to logged picks.