the daily ledger

Daily Buys

The desk’s conviction list. Every night the engine scans the full tracked universe against seven recorded factors; a card must first clear a cohort gate whose setup has historically paid, then carry at least one of those factors, and a day with nothing compelling publishes nothing. Every pick is logged at its entry price the day it appears and scored, wins and losses alike, against the moonstone Pokémon Index for as long as this page exists.

ledger opened 2026-08-3125 editionslatest entry marks 2026-09-25
this series · daily

Full-universe scan, no quotas. Fresh candidates every night, a cohort gate plus at least one supporting factor, at most four picks, a 45-day re-pick cooldown, and zero-pick days on the record. Day-keyed ledger, per-card recorded signals only.

sibling series · weekly

Weekly Buys publishes budget-tiered picks once a week from its own factor engine and its own ledger. Same house rules, same index benchmark, different clock. The two series never share picks or scores.

Not financial advice. moonstone is independent research, not an investment adviser; collectibles are speculative and illiquid and can lose most of their value. Read the full disclaimer.

-5.9%mean alpha vs moonstone Index, all marked picks, equal weight
-2.7%mean pick return over the same windows · index averaged +3.2%
-4.3%2026-09-25 mean alpha · index +2.8% over the window
56/57picks with a fresh mark; the rest are disclosed, never faked
5/56marked picks beating the index so far
Shadow cohort (122 bar-clearing candidates over 12 days, spread-adjusted): ranking edge over the rank-cut candidates -2.7%. Species guard edge -3.0%. This grades whether our ranking and guards add value, not just the survivors.

Reading the record

Three pictures the ledger can support today. Each states its own sample size, because the recorded series is weeks old and a chart that looked like years of history would be a lie.

What the bar refuses

One column per edition. The whole column is every candidate that cleared the factor bar that night; the lit part is what was published. Across 25 editions, 162 candidates cleared and 57 were published, and 8 editions published nothing at all.

publishedcleared the bar, held back
015302026-08-31: 500 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-01: 500 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 published2026-09-02: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-03: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-04: 500 scanned, 2 cleared the bar, 2 published2026-09-05: 500 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-06: 3,000 scanned, 1 cleared the bar, 1 published2026-09-07: 3,000 scanned, 29 cleared the bar, 2 published2026-09-08: 3,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-09: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-10: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-11: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-13: 22,000 scanned, 0 cleared the bar, 0 published2026-09-14: 22,000 scanned, 15 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-15: 22,000 scanned, 16 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-16: 22,000 scanned, 12 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-17: 22,000 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 2 published2026-09-18: 24,831 scanned, 10 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-19: 25,469 scanned, 4 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-20: 25,471 scanned, 10 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-21: 25,477 scanned, 7 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-22: 25,560 scanned, 6 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-23: 25,702 scanned, 9 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-24: 25,709 scanned, 8 cleared the bar, 4 published2026-09-25: 25,709 scanned, 19 cleared the bar, 4 published50025,7092026-08-312026-09-25
The strip under the columns is the tracked universe each edition scanned, 500 cards at the open and 25,709 now. Scan counts are not comparable edition to edition because coverage grew; the cleared and published counts are counts of what happened.
Show the numbers
DayScannedClearedPublished
2026-09-2525,709194
2026-09-2425,70984
2026-09-2325,70294
2026-09-2225,56064
2026-09-2125,47774
2026-09-2025,471104
2026-09-1925,46944
2026-09-1824,831104
2026-09-1722,00062
2026-09-1622,000124
2026-09-1522,000164
2026-09-1422,000154
2026-09-1322,00000
2026-09-1122,00000
2026-09-1022,00000
2026-09-0922,00000
2026-09-083,00000
2026-09-073,000292
2026-09-063,00011
2026-09-0550000
2026-09-0450022
2026-09-0350000
2026-09-0250000
2026-09-0150022
2026-08-3150064

What gets picked

Every pick published since the ledger opened, n=57.

Vehicle
  • Raw single5393%
  • Slab47%
Conviction
  • Strong buy2442%
  • Good buy3358%
Entry price
  • Under $203154%
  • $20 to $1001323%
  • $100 to $500814%
  • $500 and up59%
Composition of all 57 published picks, not of the candidates that cleared the bar. Bands are entry prices exactly as they were logged on publication day.

The ledger

D2026-09-25September 25, 202625,709 scanned · 19 cleared the bar · 4 published · this edition
moonstone Pokémon Index 234.3 (Jan 27, 2025 = 100)
Raw singleStrong buy

Scizor

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$14.27pay up to$15.70hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 104 copies graded in the last 42 days came back 6% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 15%, a 9.1pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1844 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity3.23 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem14.8% of 9,664 PSA submissions grade 10 — p5 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Scizor ranks p98.3 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -6.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Gloom

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$22.43pay up to$24.67hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocity
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 49 copies graded in the last 17 days came back 4% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 19%, a 15.4pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1844 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity10.27 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Iris's Fighting Spirit

Ascended Heroes · raw
entry$26.73pay up to$29.40hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem47.6% of 1,261 PSA submissions grade 10 — p3 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($172.61) trades at 5.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($29.75; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p30 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=41 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -17.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Venipede

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.43pay up to$8.17hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem12.8% of 196 PSA submissions grade 10 — p3 of 1259 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 12 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 3 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6880 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3089 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 21 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-24September 24, 202625,709 scanned · 8 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Rayquaza

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$8.53pay up to$9.38hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocityHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -26% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+9.1%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity5.13 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem28.3% of 2,162 PSA submissions grade 10 — p13 of 1393 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Rayquaza ranks p100 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +9.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Charizard ex

Obsidian Flames · raw
entry$33.25pay up to$36.58hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 445 copies graded in the last 44 days came back 9% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 26%, a 16.9pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1894 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity11.58 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charizard ranks p100 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Dwebble

Black Bolt · raw
entry$55.58pay up to$61.14hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -17% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+5.4%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem16.7% of 1,724 PSA submissions grade 10 — p12 of 230 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Dwebble ranks p84.6 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +5.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Jacinthe

Perfect Order · raw
entry$22.08pay up to$24.29hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity5.13 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem60.3% of 806 PSA submissions grade 10 — p24 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($61.35) trades at 2.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($22.86; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p13 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=45 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 3 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6937 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3072 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 17 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-23September 23, 202625,702 scanned · 9 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Dark Sylveon V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$6.90pay up to$7.59hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 262 copies graded in the last 34 days came back 26% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 37%, a 11.0pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1868 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Velocity2.42 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem36.6% of 9,110 PSA submissions grade 10 — p24 of 1393 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -18.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Meowth ex

Perfect Order · raw
entry$12.27pay up to$13.50hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -48% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+4.7%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Meowth ranks p96.5 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabGood buy

Rosa's Encouragement PSA 10

Perfect Order · slab
entry$133pay up to$147hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Cheap multipleVelocityHard to gem
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($133.25) trades at 2.9x the recorded 30d-average raw ($46.43; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p13 of 255 tracked ME-era multiples (n=93 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $133.25 via graded_snapshots (day 20719, n=93 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 684392)
  • Velocity6.07 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem61.8% of 2,745 PSA submissions grade 10 — p30 of 37 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -16.7%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleStrong buy

Mewtwo V

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$8.02pay up to$8.82hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryVelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -18% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+2.1%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Velocity2.33 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mewtwo ranks p99.7 of 2316 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-23)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 4 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 1 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6916 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3096 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 13 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-22September 22, 202625,560 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Whirlipede

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.84pay up to$7.52hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem21.9% of 297 PSA submissions grade 10 — p15 of 1188 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Klang

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.30pay up to$6.93hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem23.4% of 197 PSA submissions grade 10 — p18 of 1188 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -1.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Umbreon GX

Sun & Moon · raw
entry$25.14pay up to$27.65hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem25.2% of 4,089 PSA submissions grade 10 — p20 of 288 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Umbreon ranks p99.7 of 2310 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-22)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -9.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Floette ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$24.50pay up to$26.95hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($123.75) trades at 4.4x the recorded 30d-average raw ($28.43; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p24 of 252 tracked ME-era multiples (n=27 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -22.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6945 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3082 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 12 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-21September 21, 202625,477 scanned · 7 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Palpitoad

Black Bolt · raw
entry$10.64pay up to$11.70hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem16.2% of 630 PSA submissions grade 10 — p6 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -16.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Cryogonal

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.44pay up to$8.18hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem16.8% of 286 PSA submissions grade 10 — p7 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -20.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Tynamo

Black Bolt · raw
entry$16.94pay up to$18.63hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem17.8% of 765 PSA submissions grade 10 — p8 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -18.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Pawniard

Black Bolt · raw
entry$7.85pay up to$8.64hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem18.2% of 369 PSA submissions grade 10 — p9 of 1134 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -8.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 3 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6864 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3086 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 9 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-20September 20, 202625,471 scanned · 10 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Gengar V

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$10.37pay up to$11.41hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 91 copies graded in the last 32 days came back 22% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 35%, a 13.2pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1472 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem35.2% of 3,385 PSA submissions grade 10 — p21 of 1342 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Gengar ranks p99.9 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-20)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Beheeyem

Black Bolt · raw
entry$6.50pay up to$7.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem13.8% of 245 PSA submissions grade 10 — p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Golett

Black Bolt · raw
entry$9.32pay up to$10.25hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem14.9% of 228 PSA submissions grade 10 — p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -11.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Pansage

Black Bolt · raw
entry$18.15pay up to$19.97hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem15.0% of 326 PSA submissions grade 10 — p4 of 1143 tracked SV-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -23.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 6 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6808 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3118 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 9 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-19September 19, 202625,469 scanned · 4 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Froakie

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.23pay up to$5.75hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity12.09 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -45.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Mega Dragalge ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$30.05pay up to$33.06hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity6.36 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($150) trades at 4.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($35.64; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p23 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=40 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -24.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Cinccino ex

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$52.16pay up to$57.38hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demandCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity3.18 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Cinccino ranks p88.3 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-19)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($170) trades at 3.1x the recorded 30d-average raw ($55.46; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p15 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=28 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -15.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Pidgeot EX

Evolutions · raw
entry$9.50pay up to$10.45hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoverySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -16% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+7.0%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pidgeot ranks p94.8 of 2309 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-19)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +7.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (4)
  • 6808 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3124 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 7 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-18September 18, 202624,831 scanned · 10 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

AZ's Tranquility

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$21.95pay up to$24.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocityHard to gemCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity2.8 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Hard to gem53.0% of 151 PSA submissions grade 10 — p22 of 41 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($89.76) trades at 3.6x the recorded 30d-average raw ($24.74; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p18 of 253 tracked ME-era multiples (n=11 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -21.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Ampharos

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.41pay up to$5.95hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity18.2 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Ampharos ranks p96.2 of 2231 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-18)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -22.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Roxie's Performance

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$20.15pay up to$22.17hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem47.8% of 115 PSA submissions grade 10 — p7 of 41 tracked ME-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Xerneas

Chaos Rising · raw
entry$5.59pay up to$6.15hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity10.5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Xerneas ranks p83.6 of 2231 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-18)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -31.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 6 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6790 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3147 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-17September 17, 202622,000 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleGood buy

Switch

Sun & Moon · raw
entry$10.02pay up to$11.02hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem27.5% of 353 PSA submissions grade 10 — p31 of 634 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -10.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Alolan Exeggutor GX

Crimson Invasion · raw
entry$6.74pay up to$7.41hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Recovery
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -26% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+3.5%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +3.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 4 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6742 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3131 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 6 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-16September 16, 202622,000 scanned · 12 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$24.09pay up to$26.50hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 41 copies graded in the last 43 days came back 7% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 17%, a 9.8pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1311 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem17.2% of 1,119 PSA submissions grade 10 — p14 of 301 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Pikachu ranks p99.8 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-16)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.7%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Celebi

Vivid Voltage · raw
entry$6.77pay up to$7.45hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity7.88 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Celebi ranks p94.5 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-16)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Blastoise

Team Up · raw
entry$11.03pay up to$12.13hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem25.2% of 329 PSA submissions grade 10 — p28 of 652 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Blastoise ranks p99 of 2095 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-16)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -57.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Shining Volcanion

Shining Legends · raw
entry$6.23pay up to$6.85hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Velocity
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.38 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -12.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 6 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 6729 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3151 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-15September 15, 202622,000 scanned · 16 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleGood buy

Galarian Moltres

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$12.81pay up to$14.09hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Gem driftHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Gem driftGemming harder: the 368 copies graded in the last 33 days came back 10% PSA 10 against a lifetime rate of 24%, a 14.1pt drop and inside the hardest quartile of the 1171 cards where we can measure it (our own recorded PSA registry series; nobody publishes population history)
  • Hard to gem23.6% of 13,524 PSA submissions grade 10 — p8 of 1308 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Galarian Moltres ranks p89.6 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-15)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -13.4%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Lucario VSTAR

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$10.84pay up to$11.92hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity14.39 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Lucario ranks p98.6 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-15)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -7.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
SlabStrong buy

Venusaur VMAX PSA 10

SWSH Black Star Promos · slab
entry$139pay up to$153hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 5 risks
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Venusaur ranks p95.9 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-15)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($138.75) trades at 5.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($24.36; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p31 of 753 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=78 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $138.75 via graded_snapshots (day 20711, n=78 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 234298)
  • Velocity5 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -23.0%
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Raw singleStrong buy

Jirachi

Vivid Voltage · raw
entry$8.70pay up to$9.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
VelocitySpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Velocity4.28 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Jirachi ranks p93 of 2090 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-15)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -5.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 4 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 8 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5439 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3169 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-14September 14, 202622,000 scanned · 15 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Mew V

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$5.06pay up to$5.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
RecoveryHard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 4 risks
  • Recoveryrecovering: -44% below its 180-day high but the ~30d tape has turned up (+12.9%). Secondary signal; backtested a90 +9.1, win 58% (n=336, lower half-stability).
  • Hard to gem30.3% of 1,536 PSA submissions grade 10 — p15 of 1398 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Mew ranks p100 of 2092 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-14)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +12.9%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Greninja ☆

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$22.66pay up to$24.93hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem5.3% of 56,974 PSA submissions grade 10 — p4 of 77 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -2.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Sobble

SWSH Black Star Promos · raw
entry$5.92pay up to$6.51hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gem
Evidence & risks · 1 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem26.9% of 279 PSA submissions grade 10 — p12 of 1398 tracked SWSH-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -3.6%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Charmander

Dragon Majesty · raw
entry$5.06pay up to$5.57hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Hard to gemSpecies demand
Evidence & risks · 2 factors, 4 risks
  • Hard to gem18.8% of 85 PSA submissions grade 10 — p25 of 485 tracked SM-era cards in the same price band, so the PSA 10 stays scarce relative to its own cohort rather than merely being old
  • Species demandContext (not a timing signal): Charmander ranks p96.3 of 2092 tracked species by demand index (weighted blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; build 2026-09-14)
Risks
  • Break-even after costs: this needs about +24.1% gross before you keep anything, buying at the ask and selling net of marketplace fees and shipping
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.2%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (5)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the cost bar and the 1-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 9 qualifying candidate(s) blocked by the species concentration guard (max 1 pick per species per rolling 14 days, counting today's edition and the daily ledger)
  • 5355 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3181 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-13September 13, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5380 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3191 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-11September 11, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5367 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3218 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-10September 10, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5345 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3236 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 2 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-09September 9, 202622,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 22,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 5350 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 3231 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 3 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-08September 8, 20263,000 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 3,000 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 2012 candidate(s) excluded by the transaction-cost bar. A pick must belong to a historical cohort of which at least 35% actually cleared the 24.1% round trip a reader needs to break even. That is a measured fraction of past outcomes, not a predicted average: across all 65,704 recorded observations only 22% of cards cleared it, so most setups genuinely do not qualify
  • 242 candidate(s) excluded by the dead-tape gate: bottom-quintile volatility or a flat ~90d tape (backtest: the two worst-performing cohorts on record)
  • 1 modern-era candidate(s) excluded: own recorded ~90d run above +50% without a compounder stair (backtest: only modern non-stair spikes revert)
D2026-09-07September 7, 20263,000 scanned · 29 cleared the bar · 2 published
SlabStrong buy

Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10

Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery · slab
entry$533pay up to$586hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandTight floatCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Species demandMewtwo ranks p98.8 of 489 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-07)
  • Tight float93 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 46,083 = 0.20% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($532.50) trades at 1.9x the recorded 30d-average raw ($275.53; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p10 of 125 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=742 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $532.50 via report_features m10 (day 20703, n=742 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 477057)
  • Velocity18.67 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
SlabStrong buy

Charizard V PSA 10

Champion's Path · slab
entry$396pay up to$436hold 18-36 mo
Buy the graded copy and hold; the cohort-cheap gem premium plus tightening top-grade supply is the thesis.
Species demandTight floatCheap multipleVelocity
Evidence & risks · 4 factors, 4 risks
  • Species demandCharizard ranks p99 of 489 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-07)
  • Tight float44 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 29,021 = 0.15% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($396) trades at 1.5x the recorded 30d-average raw ($268.28; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p2 of 125 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=103 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort; entry stated from the FRESHEST recorded PSA 10 mark: $396 via graded_snapshots (day 20703, n=103 comps, cross-checked within 5% against the other recorded PSA 10 source; scored against graded_snapshots key 223078)
  • Velocity2.1 verified PSA 10 sales/week over the ~90d window (recorded comp-count deltas on the graded tape)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Slab-tape trend history is short: no graded snapshot ~30d back, so the slab trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Gem premiums compress when populations build; the multiple, not the price, is the early warning
Withheld from this edition (6)
  • 25 further candidate(s) cleared the 3-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 86 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 22 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 7 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
  • Lugia V: slab pick REJECTED — the two recorded PSA 10 marks disagree 9.7% (limit 5%): report_features m10 $1,276 (day 20703) vs graded_snapshots $1,413 (day 20675); no entry is stated from a disputed tape
  • Reshiram ex: slab pick REJECTED — the two recorded PSA 10 marks disagree 10.0% (limit 5%): report_features m10 $1,215 (day 20703) vs graded_snapshots $1,350 (day 20675); no entry is stated from a disputed tape
D2026-09-06September 6, 20263,000 scanned · 1 cleared the bar · 1 published
Raw singleGood buy

Eevee & Snorlax GX

SM Black Star Promos · raw
entry$192pay up to$211hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandEevee & Snorlax ranks p86 of 488 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-06)
  • Tight float28 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 11,315 = 0.25% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Uptrend+14.7% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $191.87 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +4.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 95 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 27 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-05September 5, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 32 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 4 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-04September 4, 2026500 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Umbreon VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$2,380pay up to$2,618hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandUmbreon ranks p98.7 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-04)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($4,200) trades at 1.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($2,370; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p9 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=425 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+9.1% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $2,380 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -1.0%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Gengar VMAX

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$1,035pay up to$1,138hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandGengar ranks p94.9 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-04)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($2,371) trades at 2.3x the recorded 30d-average raw ($1,041; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p25 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=383 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+12.7% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $1,035 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.8%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 28 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 4 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-03September 3, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-02September 2, 2026500 scanned · 0 cleared the bar · 0 published
No setups cleared the bar today.

Nothing lined up three factors with a fresh entry mark across 500 scanned cards. An empty day beats a forced pick; the scan runs again tomorrow.

Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 5 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-09-01September 1, 2026500 scanned · 2 cleared the bar · 2 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Pikachu ex

Surging Sparks · raw
entry$291pay up to$320hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandPikachu ranks p100 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-01)
  • Tight float104 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 30,213 = 0.34% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 trades at 3.2x raw, p32 of 117 tracked SV-era multiples (n=511 PSA 10 comps). DISCLOSED: no 30d-average raw on record for this card, so the multiple is stated against SPOT raw and this factor is down-weighted (a rallying spot price can compress the multiple)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleStrong buy

Mega Charizard X ex

Phantasmal Flames · raw
entry$703pay up to$773hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandMega Charizard X ranks p92.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-09-01)
  • Tight float96 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 49,604 = 0.19% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 trades at 2.9x raw, p31 of 39 tracked OTHER-era multiples (n=1822 PSA 10 comps). DISCLOSED: no 30d-average raw on record for this card, so the multiple is stated against SPOT raw and this factor is down-weighted (a rallying spot price can compress the multiple)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own-tape trend history is short for this card: the ~30d trend gate passed on limited recorded data (disclosed)
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 30 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)
  • 3 qualifying name(s) on the 45-day re-pick cooldown (already logged in the daily ledger)
D2026-08-31August 31, 2026500 scanned · 6 cleared the bar · 4 published
Raw singleStrong buy

Rayquaza VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$1,249pay up to$1,374hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandRayquaza ranks p93.7 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-08-30)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($2,777) trades at 2.2x the recorded 30d-average raw ($1,252; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p23 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=386 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+21.2% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $1,249 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: -0.1%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Sylveon V

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$205pay up to$225hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandCheap multipleUptrend
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandSylveon ranks p80.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-08-30)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($415.50) trades at 2.0x the recorded 30d-average raw ($205.42; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p19 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=244 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
  • Uptrend+24.1% over ~90d on its own recorded raw tape (median of recorded daily dump prices 76-104 days back vs today's $204.96 raw mark)
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Glaceon VMAX

Evolving Skies · raw
entry$312pay up to$343hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandGlaceon ranks p82.3 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-08-30)
  • Tight float40 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 15,269 = 0.26% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($521.26) trades at 1.7x the recorded 30d-average raw ($304.42; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p8 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=304 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +2.5%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Raw singleGood buy

Espeon VMAX

Fusion Strike · raw
entry$347pay up to$382hold 12-24 mo
Buy and hold the raw card; scored against the raw market it was bought in.
Species demandTight floatCheap multiple
Evidence & risks · 3 factors, 3 risks
  • Species demandEspeon ranks p80.4 of 80 tracked species by demand index (weighted percentile blend: top printing price 30%, $50+ printings 25%, PSA 10 velocity 20%, summed PSA pop 15%, tracked printings 10%; sentiment build 2026-08-30)
  • Tight float50 active TCGplayer listings vs PSA pop 20,753 = 0.24% float (tight under 0.5%; both figures recorded on our graded tape)
  • Cheap multiplePSA 10 ($630.85) trades at 1.8x the recorded 30d-average raw ($347.84; denominator is the 30d average, not spot, so a short raw rally cannot fake a cheap multiple), p9 of 95 tracked SWSH-era multiples (n=304 PSA 10 comps); the gem premium is cheap relative to its own cohort
Risks
  • Marks are recorded market medians; realizing them costs marketplace fees (about 13% on eBay) and shipping
  • Own recorded ~30d trend at entry: +0.3%
  • Raw marks are TCGplayer market prices; graded outcomes are a different market and no grading upside is assumed in this pick
Withheld from this edition (3)
  • 2 further candidate(s) cleared the 3-factor bar but ranked below today's top 4 (rank = factor count, then summed factor strength); they stay eligible tomorrow
  • 27 candidate(s) excluded by the trend gate: own recorded ~30d tape below -2% (the ledger's falling-tape lesson)
  • 2 candidate(s) excluded by the overextension cap: own recorded ~90d raw run above +25% (momentum-chasing guard)

Entries are append-only by construction: every day stays on this page forever, including the losers and the zero-pick days, and stays scored in the table below.

Scorecard

Every mark against the round trip

56 logged picks, each marked at today’s recorded price. Horizontal position is how long the pick has been held; vertical position is its gross return. The dashed line is +24.1%, the move a pick has to make before a reader keeps a cent, buying at the ask and selling net of fees.

mark above entrymark below entrybreak-even after costs
-24%-12%0%+12%+24%0d15d30dScizor: -0.1% after 1 day (entry $14.27)Gloom: -1.3% after 1 day (entry $22.43)Iris's Fighting Spirit: -5.1% after 1 day (entry $26.73)Venipede: +0.4% after 1 day (entry $7.43)Rayquaza: +0.0% after 2 days (entry $8.53)Charizard ex: +1.0% after 2 days (entry $33.25)Dwebble: -2.7% after 2 days (entry $55.58)Jacinthe: -3.5% after 2 days (entry $22.08)Dark Sylveon V: -0.9% after 3 days (entry $6.90)Meowth ex: -3.0% after 3 days (entry $12.27)Mewtwo V: -13.6% after 3 days (entry $8.02)Whirlipede: -2.0% after 4 days (entry $6.84)Klang: -2.2% after 4 days (entry $6.30)Umbreon GX: -1.0% after 4 days (entry $25.14)Mega Floette ex: -0.4% after 4 days (entry $24.50)Palpitoad: -3.5% after 5 days (entry $10.64)Cryogonal: +1.3% after 5 days (entry $7.44)Tynamo: -1.7% after 5 days (entry $16.94)Pawniard: -4.5% after 5 days (entry $7.85)Gengar V: -14.0% after 6 days (entry $10.37)Beheeyem: -1.5% after 6 days (entry $6.50)Golett: -4.1% after 6 days (entry $9.32)Pansage: -1.8% after 6 days (entry $18.15)Froakie: +2.5% after 7 days (entry $5.23)Mega Dragalge ex: -3.1% after 7 days (entry $30.05)Cinccino ex: -6.0% after 7 days (entry $52.16)Pidgeot EX: -1.8% after 7 days (entry $9.50)AZ's Tranquility: -12.1% after 8 days (entry $21.95)Ampharos: -5.9% after 8 days (entry $5.41)Roxie's Performance: -10.4% after 8 days (entry $20.15)Xerneas: -7.0% after 8 days (entry $5.59)Switch: -0.9% after 9 days (entry $10.02)Alolan Exeggutor GX: +4.7% after 9 days (entry $6.74)Pikachu: -2.8% after 10 days (entry $24.09)Celebi: -17.9% after 10 days (entry $6.77)Blastoise: -4.1% after 10 days (entry $11.03)Shining Volcanion: +4.5% after 10 days (entry $6.23)Galarian Moltres: -3.4% after 11 days (entry $12.81)Lucario VSTAR: -10.2% after 11 days (entry $10.84)Venusaur VMAX PSA 10: +8.1% after 11 days (entry $138.75)Jirachi: -2.0% after 11 days (entry $8.70)Mew V: -23.3% after 12 days (entry $5.06)Greninja ☆: -9.8% after 12 days (entry $22.66)Sobble: -1.9% after 12 days (entry $5.92)Charmander: +0.0% after 12 days (entry $5.06)Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10: +11.5% after 19 days (entry $532.50)Charizard V PSA 10: +13.6% after 19 days (entry $396.00)Eevee & Snorlax GX: +3.3% after 20 days (entry $191.87)Umbreon VMAX: -3.4% after 22 days (entry $2380.34)Gengar VMAX: -1.2% after 22 days (entry $1034.78)Pikachu ex: -1.4% after 25 days (entry $290.75)Mega Charizard X ex: -2.6% after 25 days (entry $703.07)Rayquaza VMAX: +0.5% after 26 days (entry $1249.13)Sylveon V: -2.9% after 26 days (entry $204.96)Glaceon VMAX: +0.2% after 26 days (entry $311.90)Espeon VMAX: -1.5% after 26 days (entry $347.32)
0 of 56 marks clear the round trip. The oldest position here is 30 days old against a stated horizon of at least 12 months, so these are interim marks and not verdicts. Every pick is listed with its entry, mark and return in the table below.
DayPickEntryMarkReturnAlphaStatus
2026-08-31Rayquaza VMAX$1,249$1,255+0.5%-8.1%interim mark
2026-08-31Sylveon V$205$199-2.9%-11.4%interim mark
2026-08-31Glaceon VMAX$312$313+0.2%-8.3%interim mark
2026-08-31Espeon VMAX$347$342-1.5%-10.1%interim mark
2026-09-01Pikachu ex$291$287-1.4%-7.4%interim mark
2026-09-01Mega Charizard X ex$703$685-2.6%-8.6%interim mark
2026-09-04Umbreon VMAX$2,380$2,300-3.4%-9.2%interim mark
2026-09-04Gengar VMAX$1,035$1,022-1.2%-7.0%interim mark
2026-09-06Eevee & Snorlax GX$192$198+3.3%-1.7%interim mark
2026-09-07Mewtwo VSTAR PSA 10$533$594+11.5%+6.5%interim mark
2026-09-07Charizard V PSA 10$396$450+13.6%+8.7%interim mark
2026-09-14Mew V$5.06$3.88-23.3%-26.4%interim mark
2026-09-14Greninja ☆$22.66$20.43-9.8%-12.9%interim mark
2026-09-14Sobble$5.92$5.81-1.9%-5.0%interim mark
2026-09-14Charmander$5.06$5.06+0.0%-3.1%interim mark
2026-09-15Galarian Moltres$12.81$12.37-3.4%-5.8%interim mark
2026-09-15Lucario VSTAR$10.84$9.73-10.2%-12.6%interim mark
2026-09-15Venusaur VMAX PSA 10$139$150+8.1%+5.8%interim mark
2026-09-15Jirachi$8.70$8.53-2.0%-4.3%interim mark
2026-09-16Pikachu$24.09$23.42-2.8%-5.1%interim mark
2026-09-16Celebi$6.77$5.56-17.9%-20.2%interim mark
2026-09-16Blastoise$11.03$10.58-4.1%-6.4%interim mark
2026-09-16Shining Volcanion$6.23$6.51+4.5%+2.2%interim mark
2026-09-17Switch$10.02$9.93-0.9%-3.2%interim mark
2026-09-17Alolan Exeggutor GX$6.74$7.06+4.7%+2.4%interim mark
2026-09-18AZ's Tranquility$21.95$19.29-12.1%-14.8%interim mark
2026-09-18Ampharos$5.41$5.09-5.9%-8.6%interim mark
2026-09-18Roxie's Performance$20.15$18.06-10.4%-13.1%interim mark
2026-09-18Xerneas$5.59$5.20-7.0%-9.7%interim mark
2026-09-19Froakie$5.23$5.36+2.5%-0.2%interim mark
2026-09-19Mega Dragalge ex$30.05$29.11-3.1%-5.8%interim mark
2026-09-19Cinccino ex$52.16$49.03-6.0%-8.7%interim mark
2026-09-19Pidgeot EX$9.50$9.33-1.8%-4.5%interim mark
2026-09-20Gengar V$10.37$8.92-14.0%-16.2%interim mark
2026-09-20Beheeyem$6.50$6.40-1.5%-3.8%interim mark
2026-09-20Golett$9.32$8.94-4.1%-6.3%interim mark
2026-09-20Pansage$18.15$17.82-1.8%-4.1%interim mark
2026-09-21Palpitoad$10.64$10.27-3.5%-5.5%interim mark
2026-09-21Cryogonal$7.44$7.54+1.3%-0.6%interim mark
2026-09-21Tynamo$16.94$16.65-1.7%-3.7%interim mark
2026-09-21Pawniard$7.85$7.50-4.5%-6.4%interim mark
2026-09-22Whirlipede$6.84$6.70-2.0%-3.9%interim mark
2026-09-22Klang$6.30$6.16-2.2%-4.1%interim mark
2026-09-22Umbreon GX$25.14$24.89-1.0%-2.8%interim mark
2026-09-22Mega Floette ex$24.50$24.39-0.4%-2.3%interim mark
2026-09-23Dark Sylveon V$6.90$6.84-0.9%-2.5%interim mark
2026-09-23Meowth ex$12.27$11.90-3.0%-4.7%interim mark
2026-09-23Rosa's Encouragement PSA 10$133no fresh mark––mark suspended (comp-mix)
2026-09-23Mewtwo V$8.02$6.93-13.6%-15.2%interim mark
2026-09-24Rayquaza$8.53$8.53+0.0%-1.7%interim mark
2026-09-24Charizard ex$33.25$33.58+1.0%-0.7%interim mark
2026-09-24Dwebble$55.58$54.09-2.7%-4.3%interim mark
2026-09-24Jacinthe$22.08$21.30-3.5%-5.2%interim mark
2026-09-25Scizor$14.27$14.25-0.1%-2.9%interim mark
2026-09-25Gloom$22.43$22.13-1.3%-4.1%interim mark
2026-09-25Iris's Fighting Spirit$26.73$25.36-5.1%-7.9%interim mark
2026-09-25Venipede$7.43$7.46+0.4%-2.4%interim mark

Factor attribution (live ledger)

FactorPicksMean alpha
Species demand32-6.7%
Gem drift7-5.3%
Tight float7-3.0%
Cheap multiple17-5.5%
Velocity22-4.6%
Uptrend5-7.5%
Recovery7-7.8%

Methodology & revision log

Why this engine looks nothing like Weekly Buys. Before writing it we scored the weekly ledger’s 72 marked picks factor by factor (diagnosis run 2026-08-30). The findings drove every design choice, and we publish them: print-clock rode on 67 of 72 marked picks at a 26.9% win rate and −3.07% mean alpha, so a factor attached to almost every pick selects nothing and is not a daily factor; stamp-freeze (0 wins in 5) and sealed-ev (0 wins in 4) are dropped; and static cohort evidence lost −4.68% mean alpha while the picked card’s own tape fell, so every daily factor is a per-card recorded signal and no pick may fight its own falling tape.

The cohort gate, then a factor. A card must clear the cohort gate and then at least one of seven typed factors, each computed nightly from recorded tapes with disclosed formulas: species-demand (the species’ demand-index percentile among all tracked species, at or above p80), finish-favor (the finish class in the favored tail of finish cohorts by median 90-day trend, p75 or higher, silent until the tape is deep enough), gem-drift (recent gem share at least 3 points below the lifetime rate: new top-grade supply tightening), float-tight (active TCGplayer listings under 0.5% of PSA pop, pop 500+), cheap-multiple (PSA 10 premium in the cheapest 35% of its era cohort on 10+ comps), velocity (2+ verified PSA 10 sales per week), and uptrend (the card’s own recorded tape up 8%+ over roughly 90 days). Two hard gates apply before any factor counts: a fresh entry mark from the daily price dump, and a 30-day own-tape trend no worse than −2%. At most four picks publish per day, ranked by factor count then summed factor strength; a picked card cannot re-enter for 45 days, so a single name can never compound across editions the way the weekly diagnosis caught.

Prices, marks, and vehicles. Raw picks enter and are marked at the TCGplayer market price from our daily full-catalog sync; slab picks (published when the cheap-multiple case rides a deep PSA 10 tape of 50+ recorded comps) enter and are marked at the eBay PSA 10 sold median from our graded series. Entry and mark always share one source, recorded in the append-only ledger on publication day and never edited. “Pay up to” is a discipline ceiling at entry +10%, not a valuation. Alpha is the pick’s return minus the moonstone Pokémon Index over the same window. Marks are unrealized mid-horizon readings; verdicts are issued when a pick reaches its stated horizon. The factor-attribution table above retires any factor that fails to earn alpha, exactly as the weekly series’ attribution loop exposed its losers.

Revision log. v1.0 · 2026-08-30: engine built from the weekly-ledger diagnosis (72 marked picks); factor set calibrated on the live 500-card feature universe (23 candidates cleared the three-factor bar on calibration day); day-keyed ledger opened alongside the untouched weekly ledger. Criteria changes will be logged here and never applied retroactively to logged picks.