Set deskNovember 2026
Chaos Rising
$408Full set−12.4% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.15 Median card120 Priced
Recorded low$405November 8, 2026All-time high$629September 8, 2026
From that high−35.2%set value today
First recorded$629when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than2%1 of 64 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol21%annualized, 64 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−35.6%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Chaos Rising
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$345other 110$63
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 110 of the 120 priced cards in Chaos Rising for about $63. The median card is $0.15. The remaining $345 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Mega Greninja ex - 122/086, $110) is 27% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 15% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Mega Greninja ex - 122/086$110−11.3% 30d
Mega Greninja ex - 116/086$106−17.7% 30d
Cinccino ex - 119/086$37.28−10.7% 30d
Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086$21.92−14.4% 30d
Mega Floette ex - 117/086$19.98−13.0% 30d
AZ's Tranquility - 120/086$19.34−7.4% 30d
Roxie's Performance - 121/086$15.38−4.9% 30d
Mega Greninja ex - 100/086$7.38−1.5% 30d
Xerneas - 091/086$3.99−20.0% 30d
Froakie - 088/086$3.98−19.1% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/86 | WeedleCommon | $0.17 |
| 002/86 | KakunaCommon | $0.16 |
| 003/86 | Beedrill exDouble rare | $0.54 |
| 004/86 | CarnivineCommon | $0.06 |
| 005/86 | ChespinCommon | $0.07 |
| 006/86 | QuilladinCommon | $0.08 |
| 007/86 | ChesnaughtRare | $0.19 |
| 008/86 | VulpixCommon | $0.11 |
| 009/86 | NinetalesUncommon | $0.14 |
| 010/86 | Ho-OhRare | $0.15 |
| 011/86 | FennekinCommon | $0.15 |
| 012/86 | BraixenCommon | $0.20 |
| 013/86 | DelphoxRare | $0.21 |
| 014/86 | LitleoCommon | $0.04 |
| 015/86 | Mega Pyroar exDouble rare | $0.59 |
| 016/86 | RemoraidCommon | $0.05 |
| 017/86 | OctilleryCommon | $0.04 |
| 018/86 | DelibirdUncommon | $0.09 |
| 019/86 | KeldeoRare | $0.17 |
| 020/86 | FroakieCommon | $0.15 |
| 021/86 | FrogadierCommon | $0.14 |
| 022/86 | Mega Greninja exDouble rare | $0.68 |
| 023/86 | BergmiteCommon | $0.05 |
| 024/86 | AvaluggUncommon | $0.07 |
| 025/86 | WimpodCommon | $0.07 |
| 026/86 | GolisopodUncommon | $0.02 |
| 027/86 | MareepCommon | $0.06 |
| 028/86 | FlaaffyCommon | $0.12 |
| 029/86 | AmpharosRare | $0.20 |
| 030/86 | EmolgaCommon | $0.08 |
| 031/86 | DeoxysUncommon | $0.06 |
| 032/86 | DeoxysUncommon | $0.06 |
| 033/86 | DeoxysUncommon | $0.04 |
| 034/86 | DeoxysUncommon | $0.07 |
| 035/86 | Mega Floette exDouble rare | $0.52 |
| 036/86 | EspurrCommon | $0.10 |
| 037/86 | MeowsticUncommon | $0.05 |
| 038/86 | PhantumpCommon | $0.11 |
| 039/86 | TrevenantRare | $0.15 |
| 040/86 | PumpkabooCommon | $0.09 |
| 041/86 | Gourgeist exDouble rare | $0.52 |
| 042/86 | XerneasRare | $0.14 |
| 043/86 | SudowoodoUncommon | $0.06 |
| 044/86 | PhanpyCommon | $0.10 |
| 045/86 | DonphanCommon | $0.07 |
| 046/86 | BaltoyCommon | $0.11 |
| 047/86 | ClaydolUncommon | $0.06 |
| 048/86 | Mega Gallade exDouble rare | $0.59 |
| 049/86 | ZubatCommon | $0.07 |
| 050/86 | GolbatCommon | $0.08 |
| 051/86 | CrobatRare | $0.12 |
| 052/86 | QwilfishCommon | $0.14 |
| 053/86 | StunkyCommon | $0.07 |
| 054/86 | SkuntankUncommon | $0.04 |
| 055/86 | Krookodile exDouble rare | · |
| 056/86 | TrubbishCommon | $0.13 |
| 057/86 | GarbodorUncommon | $0.06 |
| 058/86 | SkrelpCommon | $0.09 |
| 059/86 | BeldumCommon | $0.17 |
| 060/86 | MetangCommon | $0.08 |
| 061/86 | MetagrossUncommon | $0.22 |
| 062/86 | FerroseedCommon | $0.07 |
| 063/86 | FerrothornUncommon | $0.07 |
| 064/86 | Cobalion exDouble rare | $0.47 |
| 065/86 | Mega Dragalge exDouble rare | $0.45 |
| 066/86 | GoomyCommon | $0.16 |
| 067/86 | SliggooCommon | $0.04 |
| 068/86 | GoodraRare | $0.11 |
| 069/86 | TaurosUncommon | $0.04 |
| 070/86 | PatratCommon | $0.18 |
| 071/86 | WatchogCommon | $0.09 |
| 072/86 | MinccinoCommon | $0.11 |
| 073/86 | Cinccino exDouble rare | $0.63 |
| 074/86 | Adversity PolicyUncommon | $0.09 |
| 075/86 | Ange FloetteUncommon | $0.08 |
| 076/86 | AZ's TranquilityUncommon | $0.11 |
| 077/86 | EmmaUncommon | $0.14 |
| 078/86 | Great Haul NetUncommon | $0.13 |
| 079/86 | PhilippeUncommon | $0.08 |
| 080/86 | Prism TowerUncommon | $0.17 |
| 081/86 | Roxie's PerformanceUncommon | $0.10 |
| 082/86 | Special Red CardUncommon | $0.15 |
| 083/86 | Transformation TomeUncommon | $0.18 |
| 084/86 | Bubbly Water EnergyRare | $0.16 |
| 085/86 | Magnetic Metal EnergyRare | $0.19 |
| 086/86 | Nitro Fire EnergyRare | $0.14 |
| 087/86 | ChespinIllustration rare | $2.17 |
| 088/86 | FroakieIllustration rare | $3.98 |
| 089/86 | FrogadierIllustration rare | $3.15 |
| 090/86 | AmpharosIllustration rare | $3.60 |
| 091/86 | XerneasIllustration rare | $3.99 |
| 092/86 | ClaydolIllustration rare | $1.21 |
| 093/86 | CrobatIllustration rare | $1.45 |
| 094/86 | MetangIllustration rare | $1.43 |
| 095/86 | SliggooIllustration rare | $1.37 |
| 096/86 | TaurosIllustration rare | $1.64 |
| 097/86 | WatchogIllustration rare | $1.04 |
| 098/86 | Beedrill exUltra Rare | $2.21 |
| 099/86 | Mega Pyroar exUltra Rare | $2.39 |
| 100/86 | Mega Greninja exUltra Rare | $7.38 |
| 101/86 | Mega Floette exUltra Rare | $2.65 |
| 102/86 | Gourgeist exUltra Rare | $1.21 |
| 103/86 | Cobalion exUltra Rare | $1.35 |
| 104/86 | Mega Dragalge exUltra Rare | $2.09 |
| 105/86 | Cinccino exUltra Rare | $3.59 |
| 106/86 | AZ's TranquilityUltra Rare | $1.42 |
| 107/86 | EmmaUltra Rare | $1.65 |
| 108/86 | Energy RetrievalUltra Rare | $1.52 |
| 109/86 | Jumbo Ice CreamUltra Rare | $2.59 |
| 110/86 | PhilippeUltra Rare | $0.88 |
| 111/86 | Prism TowerUltra Rare | $2.07 |
| 112/86 | Roxie's PerformanceUltra Rare | $1.42 |
| 113/86 | Special Red CardUltra Rare | $2.74 |
| 114/86 | Surfing BeachUltra Rare | $2.74 |
| 115/86 | Tool ScrapperUltra Rare | · |
| 116/86 | Mega Greninja exSpecial illustration rare | $106.20 |
| 117/86 | Mega Floette exSpecial illustration rare | $19.98 |
| 118/86 | Mega Dragalge exSpecial illustration rare | $21.92 |
| 119/86 | Cinccino exSpecial illustration rare | $37.28 |
| 120/86 | AZ's TranquilitySpecial illustration rare | $19.34 |
| 121/86 | Roxie's PerformanceSpecial illustration rare | $15.38 |
| 122/86 | Mega Greninja exMega Hyper Rare | $109.65 |
Every Chaos Rising card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Mega Greninja ex - 122/086$109.65
- sealed booster box · Chaos Rising$182.2
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $72.55 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted November 8, 2026.
60.2% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsMega Greninja ex ($106.20) lands about once per 540 packs · ~15 booster boxes · $2,733 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 6 | 6 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 15 | 2.4 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 13 | 2.77 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 90 | 0.4 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are era-level averages from TCGplayer Infinite (Surging Sparks study): per-rarity odds constant across 2024 SV-era non-special sets; The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsChaos Rising Booster Box $5.06/pack
Biggest 30-day moveChaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] −22.6%
Show all 22Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Chaos Rising?
1.7%
of boxes beat the $182 box price
- Bottom 5%$47
- Median box$59
- Expected value$71
- Top 5%$163
Where 10,000 boxes landed
14.6%$0-50
75.0%$50-100
2.3%$100-150
7.4%$150-200
0.3%$200-250
0.3%$250-300
0.0%$300-350
0.0%$350-400
Red buckets end below the $182 box price. 86.4% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Chaos Rising using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($182, $5.06/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 39.1% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-101 (0.99% +/- 0.27%) (inherited) | 6 | 0.35 | $36.68 | Mega Greninja ex ($106) |
| Illustration rare | 1-in-9 (10.89% +/- 0.86%) (inherited) | 11 | 3.92 | $2.28 | Xerneas ($4) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-12 (8.23% +/- 0.76%) (inherited) | 18 | 2.97 | $2.22 | Mega Greninja ex ($7) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-5 (20.91% +/- 1.12%) (inherited) | 10 | 7.56 | $0.50 | Mega Greninja ex ($1) |
| Mega hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-1260 (0.08% +/- 0.08%) (inherited) | 1 | 0.03 | $109.65 | Mega Greninja ex ($110) |
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $182 box price (Chaos Rising Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: every rate here is inherited from an era study of 5,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Mega Evolution (ME1)) (tcgplayer.com, 5,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 15.8% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $36 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (120 of 122 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 24 cards up · 45 down · 51 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Prism Tower - 111/086 (+27.8%).